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Atlas Logistics · ATLS

DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLD

Credit metrics — FY2025A

DEMO DATA inputs · CALCULATED metrics

Metric	Value	Formula	Raw inputs used
Total debt	$1.5B	Σ tranche principal (face value)	debt=1500.0
Net debt	$1.4B	Total debt − cash	debt=1500.0 · cash=140.0
Gross leverage (Debt / EBITDA)	4.87x	Total debt ÷ EBITDA	debt=1500.0 · ebitda=308.0
Secured leverage	2.44x	Secured debt ÷ EBITDA	secured=750.0 · ebitda=308.0
Net leverage	4.42x	Net debt ÷ EBITDA	netDebt=1360.0 · ebitda=308.0
Interest coverage (EBIT / interest)	1.56x	EBIT ÷ interest expense	ebit=168.0 · interest=107.8
EBITDA / interest	2.86x	EBITDA ÷ interest expense	ebitda=308.0 · interest=107.8
FCF / debt	1.3%	Free cash flow ÷ total debt	fcf=19.6 · debt=1500.0
Debt service coverage	1.10x	(EBITDA − capex − taxes) ÷ (interest + mandatory amortization)	ebitda=308.0 · capex=168.0 · taxes=15.1 · interest=107.8 · amort=6.0
Cash conversion	45.5%	(EBITDA − capex) ÷ EBITDA	ebitda=308.0 · capex=168.0
Liquidity ratio	2.99x	(Cash + undrawn revolver) ÷ (debt due next period + amortization + interest)	liquidity=340.0 · stObl=113.8
Current ratio	1.39x	Current assets ÷ (current liabilities ex-debt + debt due next period)	currentAssets=780.0 · curLiab=560.0
Short-term debt / liquidity	0.00x	Debt due next period ÷ (cash + undrawn revolver)	std=0.00 · liquidity=340.0

Credit scorecard — deterministic, auditable

Score 56.4 / 100 · Elevated

Factor	Measure	Value	Best	Worst	Points	Max	Proj. base	Proj. downside	Proj. severe
Leverage	Net debt / LTM EBITDA	4.42	2	7	7.8	15	8.1	0.7	0.0
Coverage	LTM EBITDA / interest expense	2.86	5	1	7.0	15	7.2	2.8	0.0
Liquidity	Cash + undrawn revolver vs next-period obligations	2.99	2	0.5	10.0	10	10.0	10.0	10.0
Free cash flow	LTM FCF / total debt	0.01	0.12	-0.02	2.4	10	2.1	0.0	0.0
Maturity risk	Share of debt maturing within 3 periods	0.50	0	0.5	0.0	10	0.0	0.0	0.0
Margin stability	Std-dev of annual EBITDA margin	0.01	0.01	0.05	10.0	10	10.0	10.0	10.0
Revenue stability	Std-dev of annual revenue growth	0.03	0.03	0.15	8.0	8	8.0	8.0	8.0
Asset coverage	Asset base / total debt	1.33	2	0.6	6.3	12	6.3	6.3	6.3
Industry risk	Sector factor (config.ts)	0.50	1	0	5.0	10	5.0	5.0	5.0
Total					56.4	100	56.7	42.7	39.3

Why did the score change?

FY2024A (same capital structure) → FY2025A: 59.6 → 56.4

▼ Net leverage increased from 4.2x to 4.4x (-0.7 pts, negative)
▼ Interest coverage fell from 3.2x to 2.9x (-1.2 pts, negative)
• Liquidity ratio broadly stable at 3.0x
▼ FCF / debt fell from 3.2% to 1.3% (-1.4 pts, negative)
• Near-term maturity share unchanged at 50%
• Margin volatility unchanged at 0.6 pts
• Revenue volatility unchanged at 2.5 pts
• Asset coverage unchanged at 1.33x
• Industry risk factor unchanged at 0.50

Each factor earns its weight linearly between a “worst” (0 pts) and “best” (full pts) threshold; weights and thresholds live in src/lib/config.ts. “Proj.” columns re-score the first projected period of each scenario. Risk bands: ≥75 Low · ≥60 Moderate · ≥45 Elevated · else High.

Covenant analysis

Base Case Downside Severe Downside

Metrics are computed from the projection by the scenario engine — no covenant output is typed in. Headroom = distance to the covenant (positive = cushion). Hypothetical covenants are UNDERWRITING ASSUMPTION; disclosed covenants are tested on a model-basis proxy.

Base Case: no breachDownside: 5 failed tests; first breach FY2026ESevere Downside: 5 failed tests; first breach FY2026E

Maximum net leverage UNDERWRITING ASSUMPTION HYPOTHETICAL — underwriting assumption

	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Current metric	4.29x	4.04x	3.80x	3.54x	3.28x
Covenant	≤ 5.50x	≤ 5.50x	≤ 5.50x	≤ 5.50x	≤ 5.50x
Headroom	1.21x (22%)	1.46x (26%)	1.70x (31%)	1.96x (36%)	2.22x (40%)
Status	PASS	PASS	PASS	PASS	PASS

Projected credit metrics by scenario

ANALYST PROJECTION

Scenario	Metric	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Base Case	Net debt / EBITDA	4.3x	4.0x	3.8x	3.5x	3.3x
	EBITDA / cash interest	2.9x	3.5x	3.5x	3.7x	3.8x
	DSCR	1.1x	1.3x	1.3x	1.4x	1.5x
	Liquidity ($M)	$346M	$346M	$374M	$408M	$350M
Downside	Net debt / EBITDA	6.8x	8.7x	8.4x	7.9x	7.4x
	EBITDA / cash interest	1.7x	1.6x	1.6x	1.8x	2.0x
	DSCR	0.5x	0.2x	0.4x	0.5x	0.6x
	Liquidity ($M)	$295M	$216M	$216M	$216M	$216M
Severe Downside	Net debt / EBITDA	17.7x	61.6x	37.9x	28.1x	22.5x
	EBITDA / cash interest	0.6x	0.2x	0.3x	0.5x	0.7x
	DSCR	-0.2x	-0.5x	-0.3x	-0.1x	0.0x
	Liquidity ($M)	$248M	$78M	$78M	$78M	$78M

Red = payment default reached in or before that period. After a default the model keeps rolling mechanically for illustration; the recovery waterfall is struck at the default period.

Sources & data lineage (3)

Source	Document	Data type	Period	Accession	Doc date	Retrieved	Class
CreditIQ demo dataset	Atlas Logistics — illustrative financial statements FY2022–FY2025	Income statement / cash flow	FY2022–FY2025	—	2026-03-31	2026-03-31	DEMO DATA
CreditIQ demo dataset	Atlas Logistics — illustrative capital structure & covenants	Debt schedule	As of 2026-03-31	—	2026-03-31	2026-03-31	DEMO DATA
CreditIQ demo dataset	Illustrative indicative bid marks (% of par)	Market price	2026-03-31	—	2026-03-31	2026-03-31	DEMO DATA