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Atlas Logistics · ATLS

DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLD

How one assumption propagates: statements → cash flow → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns

ANALYST PROJECTION

Stage	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
① Revenue growth (avg) → revenue (period 5)	2.0% → $3.1B	-1.3% → $2.6B	-7.2% → $1.9B
② EBITDA margin (period 1 → 5) → trough EBITDA	11.0% → 11.8% → $314M	8.0% → 8.6% → $169M	3.8% → 5.0% → $26M
③ Cumulative FCF (5 periods)	$162M	($303M)	($750M)
④ Rate shock → period-1 cash interest	+0bp → $108M	+150bp → $119M	+300bp → $130M
⑤ Peak net leverage · min EBITDA/interest	4.3x · 2.91x	8.7x · 1.56x	61.6x · 0.21x
⑥ Covenants: first breach	none	FY2026E	FY2026E
⑦ Refinancing tests (pass / fail)	3 / 0	0 / 3	0 / 3
⑧ Payment default	none	FY2027E	FY2027E
⑨ Recovery value → target-tranche recovery	$1.6B (going concern) → 100%	$935M (liquidation) → 100%	$715M (liquidation) → 78%
⑩ IRR · MOIC	11.3% · 1.11x	8.3% · 1.25x	1.7% · 1.05x

Scenario probabilities: Base Case 55% · Downside 30% · Severe Downside 15% (analyst assumption). Edit any assumption in the lab below to watch every stage move.

Scenario assumptions

	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
Revenue growth (period 1 / period 5)	2.0% / 2.0%	-7.8% / 2.0%	-23.4% / 2.0%
EBITDA margin (period 1 / period 5)	11.0% / 11.8%	8.0% / 8.6%	3.8% / 5.0%
Capex % revenue	6.0%	5.7%	4.8%
Other cash items % revenue (+ outflow)	0.0%	0.2%	0.6%
Net asset sales (period 1, $M)	$0M	$0M	$0M
Floating-rate shock	+0 bp	+150 bp	+300 bp
Refinancing rate	8.5%	11.0%	13.5%
Market access: max net leverage / min coverage	8.5x / 1.20x	5.5x / 1.80x	5.0x / 2.00x
Exit multiple / distressed multiple	7.0x / 5.0x	5.5x / 5.0x	4.0x / 5.0x
Exit price cap (non-default)	100	90	70
Asset value decline / liquidation recovery	0% / 55%	15% / 55%	35% / 55%

EBITDA ($M)

Free cash flow ($M)

Net debt / EBITDA

Scenario engine — change assumptions and watch them propagate

Start from:Edits flow through statements → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns.

Assumptions (edit)

	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue growth	%	%	%	%	%
EBITDA margin	%	%	%	%	%
Asset sales ($M)

Capex % rev%NWC % Δrev%Other cash items % rev%Floating-rate shock%Refinancing rate%Max refi net lev (x)Min refi coverage (x)Exit multiple (x)Exit price cap (%)Distressed multiple (x)Asset value decline%Liquidation recovery%

Result — First-Lien Term Loan @ 96.5

Default?

Yes — FY2027E

Covenant breaches

Recovery

100%

IRR

8.3%

MOIC

1.25x

Lines: Base EBITDA (blue) vs your custom case (orange), $M.

$M	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue	$2.6B	$2.5B	$2.5B	$2.6B	$2.6B
EBITDA	$207M	$169M	$185M	$204M	$224M
Cash interest	$119M	$108M	$113M	$112M	$112M
FCF	($39M)	($74M)	($78M)	($65M)	($48M)
Cash	$0M	$0M	($84M)	($155M)	($208M)
Total debt	$1.4B	$1.5B	$1.5B	$1.5B	$1.5B
Net lev.	6.8x	8.7x	8.4x	7.9x	7.4x
EBITDA/int.	1.7x	1.6x	1.6x	1.8x	2.0x