Atlas Logistics · ATLS
DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLDRecovery waterfall by scenario
ANALYST PROJECTIONRecovery value = MAX(going-concern value, liquidation value) + cash, less administrative costs, then distributed by seniority (strict absolute priority; equal ranks pari passu). Going concern = distressed EV/EBITDA multiple × EBITDA at the valuation event; liquidation = asset base × (1 − decline) × liquidation recovery. Valuation event = the payment-default period, or — if no default is modelled — a hypothetical default at the trough-EBITDA period (so protection is always measured). Specific liens are paid from their own collateral pool; any deficiency joins general creditors. Illustrative appraised / collateral value (DEMO)
Base Case — FY2026E (hypothetical default at trough EBITDA; no default modelled)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $1.6B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($62.8M) | |||||
| ABL Revolver | 1 | $3.7M | $3.7M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $605.7M | $605.7M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 6.50% | 3 | $762.2M | $762.2M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Total claims | $1.4B | $1.4B | $0.0M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $136.4M | In the money | ||||
Downside — FY2027E (modelled payment default)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $935.0M | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($37.4M) | |||||
| ABL Revolver | 1 | $137.2M | $137.2M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $601.5M | $601.5M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 6.50% | 3 | $762.2M | $158.9M | 20.9% | $603.3M | 79.1% |
| Total claims | $1.5B | $897.6M | $603.3M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||
Severe Downside — FY2027E (modelled payment default)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $715.0M | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($28.6M) | |||||
| ABL Revolver | 1 | $279.0M | $217.0M | 77.8% | $62.0M | 22.2% |
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $603.7M | $469.4M | 77.8% | $134.2M | 22.2% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 6.50% | 3 | $762.2M | $0.0M | 0.0% | $762.2M | 100.0% |
| Total claims | $1.6B | $686.4M | $958.4M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||
Recovery lab — change valuation assumptions and watch the waterfall re-allocate
Going-concern $130.0M vs liquidation $715.0M → recovery value = MAX = $715.0M (used: liquidation, $715.0M). Claims = current face value + 3 months accrued interest.
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $715.0M | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($28.6M) | |||||
| ABL Revolver | 1 | $152.9M | $137.2M | 89.8% | $15.7M | 10.2% |
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $611.8M | $549.2M | 89.8% | $62.7M | 10.2% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 6.50% | 3 | $762.2M | $0.0M | 0.0% | $762.2M | 100.0% |
| Total claims | $1.5B | $686.4M | $840.5M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||