Dashboard — what should I look at today?
Ranked opportunities, deteriorating credits, maturity and covenant pressure, portfolio changes. Every tile links to an action or a question.
AMC Networks (AMC Global Media) PUBLIC DATA CASEHOLD
Base / downside / severe IRR 12.6% / 6.5% / -10.8% · severe recovery 34% · 2 core test(s) failed → open investment committee page
Brandywine Realty Trust PUBLIC DATA CASEHOLD
Base / downside / severe IRR 9.6% / 8.7% / 9.9% · severe recovery 100% · 2 core test(s) failed → open investment committee page
High-severity alerts
4
portfolio & thesis monitor
Covenant issues
8
breach within 2 periods
Maturity flags
19
base case refi shortfall
Distressed screens
5
≥ 3 distress flags
Companies
18
2 public cases + 16 demo
Avg. credit score
60
Top opportunities — ranked by risk-adjusted expected return
rank = probability-weighted IRR − 10% × severe-case loss · click headers to sort| # ▲ | Company | Decision | Base IRR | Downside IRR | Exp. IRR | Severe recovery | Net lev. | EBITDA/int. | Score | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandywine Realty Trust PUBLIC DATA CASE | HOLD | 9.6% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 100% | 9.8x | 1.72x | 46 | Elevated |
| 2 | Ridgeline Infrastructure Services | HOLD | 8.0% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 100% | 3.9x | 3.46x | 81 | Low |
| 3 | Pinnacle Oilfield Services | HOLD | 7.2% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 100% | 2.0x | 4.54x | 80 | Low |
| 4 | Evergreen Physician Group | HOLD | 11.0% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 65% | 6.2x | 1.83x | 49 | Elevated |
| 5 | Meridian Industrial REIT | HOLD | 8.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 100% | 4.6x | 4.08x | 83 | Low |
| 6 | Cloudspire Technologies | HOLD | 13.5% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 56% | 6.2x | 1.46x | 38 | High |
| 7 | Northgate Software | HOLD | 8.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 100% | 1.8x | 5.62x | 90 | Low |
| 8 | Atlas Logistics | HOLD | 11.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 78% | 4.4x | 2.86x | 56 | Elevated |
Risk / return matrix — expected IRR vs downside protection
hurdle 12% · protection line = minimum recovery 60%Top-left: speculative (return, thin protection) · Top-right: strong candidatesBottom-left: avoid · Bottom-right: low-risk, low-return
Highest risks — credits whose score is deteriorating the most
| Company | Score | Δ vs prior period | Main driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kestrel Auto Components | 38 | -5.9 | Net leverage increased from 5.5x to 6.4x (-2.6 pts, negative) |
| AMC Networks (AMC Global Media) | 59 | -5.4 | Net leverage increased from 3.1x to 4.1x (-2.9 pts, negative) |
| Atlas Logistics | 56 | -3.2 | FCF / debt fell from 3.2% to 1.3% (-1.4 pts, negative) |
| Summit Chemical | 62 | -2.6 | Interest coverage fell from 3.5x to 3.2x (-1.3 pts, negative) |
| Brightwater Retail Holdings | 31 | -2.6 | FCF / debt fell from 1.6% to -0.2% (-1.3 pts, negative) |
Upcoming maturities & refinancing requirement (base case, ≤ 2 periods)
Covenant issues — current and projected breaches
| Company | Covenant | Case | First breach |
|---|---|---|---|
| BDN | Credit agreement: fixed-charge coverage ≥ 1.5x — PROXY | BREACH | LTM Jun-27E |
| AMCX | Hypothetical maintenance covenant: max net leverage (A | Downside | LTM Jun-28E |
| AMCX | Hypothetical maintenance covenant: min interest covera | Downside | LTM Jun-28E |
| BDN | Credit agreement: leverage ratio ≤ 0.60 (debt ÷ total | Downside | LTM Jun-27E |
| BDN | Credit agreement: fixed-charge coverage ≥ 1.5x — PROXY | Downside | LTM Jun-27E |
| BDN | Hypothetical maintenance covenant on the new loan: max | Downside | LTM Jun-27E |
| BWR | Maximum net leverage | Downside | FY2026E |
| TWOP | Maximum net leverage | Downside | FY2027E |
Distressed opportunities
Open screen →| Company | Opp. score | Opportunity | Safety | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandywine Realty Trust | 60 | 68 | 47 | 5 |
| Kestrel Auto Components | 42 | 51 | 29 | 6 |
| Brightwater Retail Holdings | 36 | 50 | 15 | 6 |
| Redwood Broadband | 35 | 50 | 12 | 4 |
| Tidewater Office Partners | 31 | 48 | 4 | 5 |
Recent portfolio changes & thesis status
Portfolio →- 2026-06-30 AMCX HYPOTHETICAL INVESTMENT TERMS — H1-2026 (10-Q filed 2026-07-30): revenue -5.7% YoY, EBITDA -46.2% YoY. THESIS DETERIORATIONHIGH EBITDA -46.2% vs plan -15.0%
- 2026-06-30 BDN HYPOTHETICAL INVESTMENT TERMS — H1-2026 (10-Q filed 2026-07-28): revenue 5.7% YoY, EBITDA 6.1% YoY. WATCHHIGH $800M maturity in LTM Jun-28E; only $725M projected liquidity; $75M refinancing requirement
- 2026-03-25 RWBB — Sub losses accelerating; fiber sale process launched. Under review
- 2026-03-20 HLCN — Q1 results in line; recall reserve unchanged. On track
- 2026-03-18 EVPG — Payer rate cuts hit Q1 margin; covenant headroom thin. ImpairedHIGH Net leverage up 1.0x to 6.2x
- 2026-03-12 SMCH — No refi launched; chlor-alkali pricing softer. Under review
Macro themes (credit-relevant)
Macro →SOFR ↑ → floating interest ↑ → FCF ↓ → coverage ↓ → refinancing risk ↑. Open the macro page for live FRED readings and the rate-sensitivity of every case.