Distressed opportunity screen

Risk flags show stress. The Distressed Opportunity Score rates whether the stress is underwritable: five opportunity drivers + six safety (inverse-risk) drivers, each 0–100 with weights summing to 100. Nothing is a single unexplained number.

Score drivers by company (higher = more attractive / safer)

Company	Flags	Score	Opportunity (60)	Recovery (20)	Entry disc. (15)	Catalyst (10)	Position (10)	Refi event (5)	Safety (40)	Default risk (15)	Liquidity (10)	Leverage (5)	Coverage (5)	Maturity (3)	FCF (2)	View
Kestrel Auto Components	6	42	51	11	53	60	100	80	29	0	100	13	17	0	12	PASS
Brightwater Retail Holdings	6	36	50	0	73	80	70	80	15	0	55	0	8	0	13	HOLD
Brandywine Realty Trust PUBLIC DATA CASE	5	60	68	100	7	60	100	80	47	50	100	0	18	0	12	HOLD
Tidewater Office Partners	5	31	48	0	93	60	70	40	4	0	0	0	20	0	33	PASS
Redwood Broadband	4	35	50	0	73	80	70	80	12	0	31	7	19	10	2	HOLD
Atlas Logistics	2	57	56	68	12	40	100	80	59	55	100	52	46	0	24	HOLD
AMC Networks (AMC Global Media) PUBLIC DATA CASE	2	48	31	6	17	40	100	20	74	80	100	59	21	52	93	HOLD
Cloudspire Technologies	2	47	50	37	30	40	100	80	43	55	73	16	12	0	20	HOLD
Evergreen Physician Group	2	46	48	50	23	40	100	20	43	55	41	15	21	85	31	HOLD
Meridian Industrial REIT	1	75	64	100	40	40	75	20	90	100	100	47	77	100	93	HOLD
Pinnacle Oilfield Services	1	72	58	100	0	40	100	20	93	85	100	100	88	100	92	HOLD
Ironclad Steel Products	1	52	23	32	10	20	30	20	94	85	100	99	100	100	100	HOLD
Summit Chemical	1	42	28	0	27	60	30	80	62	55	100	56	54	0	54	PASS
Cascade Fitness	1	21	7	0	0	0	30	20	43	55	24	33	25	100	36	HOLD
Halcyon Medical Devices	0	70	50	100	12	40	30	20	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	HOLD
Northgate Software	0	68	47	100	13	20	30	20	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	HOLD
Ridgeline Infrastructure Services	0	64	51	100	17	40	30	20	83	85	100	61	62	100	71	HOLD
Orchard Foods	0	35	16	13	20	20	8	20	64	85	28	55	53	100	74	HOLD

Hover a cell for its detail (e.g. “Severe-case recovery 34%”). Opportunity drivers: severe-case valuation recovery, entry discount to par, catalyst potential (analyst 0–5), capital-structure position, refinancing event. Safety drivers: 1 − P(default), liquidity ratio, net leverage, coverage, near-term maturity share, FCF / debt. Weights in src/lib/config.ts.

Distress flags triggered

Company	Triggered flags
Kestrel Auto Components	High leverage (6.4x) · Low coverage (1.7x) · Near-term maturity (45% within 2 periods) · Declining EBITDA (-14% YoY) · Negative FCF · Debt discount (84)
Brightwater Retail Holdings	High leverage (7.7x) · Low coverage (1.3x) · Near-term maturity (38% within 2 periods) · Declining EBITDA (-10% YoY) · Negative FCF · Debt discount (78)
Brandywine Realty Trust	High leverage (9.8x) · Low coverage (1.7x) · Near-term maturity (30% within 2 periods) · Declining EBITDA (-7% YoY) · Negative FCF
Tidewater Office Partners	High leverage (8.6x) · Low coverage (1.8x) · Near-term maturity (80% within 2 periods) · Declining EBITDA (-6% YoY) · Debt discount (72)
Redwood Broadband	High leverage (6.7x) · Low coverage (1.7x) · Negative FCF · Debt discount (78)
Atlas Logistics	Near-term maturity (40% within 2 periods) · Declining EBITDA (-5% YoY)
AMC Networks (AMC Global Media)	Low coverage (1.8x) · Declining EBITDA (-27% YoY)
Cloudspire Technologies	High leverage (6.2x) · Low coverage (1.5x)
Evergreen Physician Group	High leverage (6.2x) · Low coverage (1.8x)
Meridian Industrial REIT	Debt discount (88)
Pinnacle Oilfield Services	Declining EBITDA (-14% YoY)
Ironclad Steel Products	Declining EBITDA (-8% YoY)
Summit Chemical	Declining EBITDA (-5% YoY)
Cascade Fitness	High leverage (5.4x)

High leverage: net debt / EBITDA ≥ 5x · Low coverage: EBITDA / interest < 2x
Near-term maturity: ≥ 25% of debt due within 2 periods · Declining EBITDA ≤ -5% YoY · Negative FCF
Debt discount: mark below 90 · Recovery ≥ 1.2x price in the severe case. ≥ 3 flags = distressed situation.