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Brightwater Retail Holdings · BWR
DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLDCredit metrics — FY2025A
DEMO DATA inputs · CALCULATED metrics| Metric | Value | Formula | Raw inputs used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total debt | $1.3B | Σ tranche principal (face value) | debt=1250.0 |
| Net debt | $1.2B | Total debt − cash | debt=1250.0 · cash=45.0 |
| Gross leverage (Debt / EBITDA) | 8.01x | Total debt ÷ EBITDA | debt=1250.0 · ebitda=156.0 |
| Secured leverage | 6.09x | Secured debt ÷ EBITDA | secured=950.0 · ebitda=156.0 |
| Net leverage | 7.72x | Net debt ÷ EBITDA | netDebt=1205.0 · ebitda=156.0 |
| Interest coverage (EBIT / interest) | 0.87x | EBIT ÷ interest expense | ebit=103.2 · interest=119.0 |
| EBITDA / interest | 1.31x | EBITDA ÷ interest expense | ebitda=156.0 · interest=119.0 |
| FCF / debt | -0.2% | Free cash flow ÷ total debt | fcf=-2.64 · debt=1250.0 |
| Debt service coverage | 0.87x | (EBITDA − capex − taxes) ÷ (interest + mandatory amortization) | ebitda=156.0 · capex=48.0 · taxes=0.00 · interest=119.0 · amort=5.2 |
| Cash conversion | 69.2% | (EBITDA − capex) ÷ EBITDA | ebitda=156.0 · capex=48.0 |
| Liquidity ratio | 1.33x | (Cash + undrawn revolver) ÷ (debt due next period + amortization + interest) | liquidity=165.0 · stObl=124.2 |
| Current ratio | 1.23x | Current assets ÷ (current liabilities ex-debt + debt due next period) | currentAssets=640.0 · curLiab=520.0 |
| Short-term debt / liquidity | 0.00x | Debt due next period ÷ (cash + undrawn revolver) | std=0.00 · liquidity=165.0 |
Credit scorecard — deterministic, auditable
Score 30.5 / 100 · High| Factor | Measure | Value | Best | Worst | Points | Max | Proj. base | Proj. downside | Proj. severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leverage | Net debt / LTM EBITDA | 7.72 | 2 | 7 | 0.0 | 15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Coverage | LTM EBITDA / interest expense | 1.31 | 5 | 1 | 1.2 | 15 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Liquidity | Cash + undrawn revolver vs next-period obligations | 1.33 | 2 | 0.5 | 5.5 | 10 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| Free cash flow | LTM FCF / total debt | -0.00 | 0.12 | -0.02 | 1.3 | 10 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Maturity risk | Share of debt maturing within 3 periods | 0.80 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Margin stability | Std-dev of annual EBITDA margin | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 10.0 | 10 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Revenue stability | Std-dev of annual revenue growth | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 8.0 | 8 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| Asset coverage | Asset base / total debt | 0.83 | 2 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 12 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Industry risk | Sector factor (config.ts) | 0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2.5 | 10 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Total | 30.5 | 100 | 29.2 | 23.6 | 22.6 | ||||
Why did the score change?
FY2024A (same capital structure) → FY2025A: 33.1 → 30.5
- • Net leverage broadly stable at 7.7x
- ▼ Interest coverage fell from 1.5x to 1.3x (-0.8 pts, negative)
- ▼ Liquidity ratio fell from 1.4x to 1.3x (-0.4 pts, negative)
- ▼ FCF / debt fell from 1.6% to -0.2% (-1.3 pts, negative)
- • Near-term maturity share unchanged at 80%
- • Margin volatility unchanged at 0.8 pts
- • Revenue volatility unchanged at 0.3 pts
- • Asset coverage unchanged at 0.83x
- • Industry risk factor unchanged at 0.25
Each factor earns its weight linearly between a “worst” (0 pts) and “best” (full pts) threshold; weights and thresholds live in src/lib/config.ts. “Proj.” columns re-score the first projected period of each scenario. Risk bands: ≥75 Low · ≥60 Moderate · ≥45 Elevated · else High.
Covenant analysis
Metrics are computed from the projection by the scenario engine — no covenant output is typed in. Headroom = distance to the covenant (positive = cushion). Hypothetical covenants are UNDERWRITING ASSUMPTION; disclosed covenants are tested on a model-basis proxy.
Base Case: no breachDownside: 5 failed tests; first breach FY2026ESevere Downside: 5 failed tests; first breach FY2026E
Maximum net leverage UNDERWRITING ASSUMPTION HYPOTHETICAL — underwriting assumption
| FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | FY2030E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current metric | 16.54x | 28.57x | 24.57x | 21.87x | 19.84x |
| Covenant | ≤ 8.50x | ≤ 8.50x | ≤ 8.50x | ≤ 8.50x | ≤ 8.50x |
| Headroom | −8.04x (-95%) | −20.07x (-236%) | −16.07x (-189%) | −13.37x (-157%) | −11.34x (-133%) |
| Status | BREACH | BREACH | BREACH | BREACH | BREACH |
Projected credit metrics by scenario
ANALYST PROJECTION| Scenario | Metric | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | FY2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | Net debt / EBITDA | 7.9x | 7.7x | 7.6x | 7.6x | 7.5x |
| EBITDA / cash interest | 1.3x | 1.4x | 1.3x | 1.2x | 1.2x | |
| DSCR | 0.9x | 0.9x | 0.9x | 0.8x | 0.9x | |
| Liquidity ($M) | $151M | $151M | $129M | $110M | $92M | |
| Downside | Net debt / EBITDA | 16.5x | 28.6x | 24.6x | 21.9x | 19.8x |
| EBITDA / cash interest | 0.6x | 0.4x | 0.5x | 0.6x | 0.7x | |
| DSCR | 0.3x | 0.1x | 0.2x | 0.3x | 0.3x | |
| Liquidity ($M) | $84M | $84M | $84M | $84M | $84M | |
| Severe Downside | Net debt / EBITDA | 70.7x | 89.7x | 102.0x | 113.2x | 124.6x |
| EBITDA / cash interest | 0.1x | 0.1x | 0.1x | 0.1x | 0.1x | |
| DSCR | -0.1x | -0.1x | -0.1x | -0.1x | -0.1x | |
| Liquidity ($M) | $65M | $65M | $65M | $65M | $65M |
Red = payment default reached in or before that period. After a default the model keeps rolling mechanically for illustration; the recovery waterfall is struck at the default period.
Sources & data lineage (3)
| Source | Document | Data type | Period | Accession | Doc date | Retrieved | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CreditIQ demo dataset | Brightwater Retail Holdings — illustrative financial statements FY2022–FY2025 | Income statement / cash flow | FY2022–FY2025 | — | 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-31 | DEMO DATA |
| CreditIQ demo dataset | Brightwater Retail Holdings — illustrative capital structure & covenants | Debt schedule | As of 2026-03-31 | — | 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-31 | DEMO DATA |
| CreditIQ demo dataset | Illustrative indicative bid marks (% of par) | Market price | 2026-03-31 | — | 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-31 | DEMO DATA |