Brightwater Retail Holdings · BWR
DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLDRecovery waterfall by scenario
ANALYST PROJECTIONRecovery value = MAX(going-concern value, liquidation value) + cash, less administrative costs, then distributed by seniority (strict absolute priority; equal ranks pari passu). Going concern = distressed EV/EBITDA multiple × EBITDA at the valuation event; liquidation = asset base × (1 − decline) × liquidation recovery. Valuation event = the payment-default period, or — if no default is modelled — a hypothetical default at the trough-EBITDA period (so protection is always measured). Specific liens are paid from their own collateral pool; any deficiency joins general creditors. Illustrative appraised / collateral value (DEMO)
Base Case — FY2027E (modelled payment default)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $630.4M | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($25.2M) | |||||
| ABL Revolver | 1 | $152.6M | $152.6M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| First-Lien Term Loan | 2 | $522.4M | $452.6M | 86.6% | $69.8M | 13.4% |
| Second-Lien Notes 11.0% | 3 | $256.9M | $0.0M | 0.0% | $256.9M | 100.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 7.5% | 4 | $305.6M | $0.0M | 0.0% | $305.6M | 100.0% |
| Total claims | $1.2B | $605.2M | $632.3M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||
Downside — FY2027E (modelled payment default)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $530.4M | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($21.2M) | |||||
| ABL Revolver | 1 | $221.6M | $221.6M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| First-Lien Term Loan | 2 | $524.3M | $287.6M | 54.8% | $236.8M | 45.2% |
| Second-Lien Notes 11.0% | 3 | $256.9M | $0.0M | 0.0% | $256.9M | 100.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 7.5% | 4 | $305.6M | $0.0M | 0.0% | $305.6M | 100.0% |
| Total claims | $1.3B | $509.2M | $799.3M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||
Severe Downside — FY2027E (modelled payment default)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $405.6M | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($16.2M) | |||||
| ABL Revolver | 1 | $241.6M | $241.6M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| First-Lien Term Loan | 2 | $526.2M | $147.8M | 28.1% | $378.4M | 71.9% |
| Second-Lien Notes 11.0% | 3 | $256.9M | $0.0M | 0.0% | $256.9M | 100.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 7.5% | 4 | $305.6M | $0.0M | 0.0% | $305.6M | 100.0% |
| Total claims | $1.3B | $389.4M | $940.9M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||
Recovery lab — change valuation assumptions and watch the waterfall re-allocate
Going-concern $60.0M vs liquidation $405.6M → recovery value = MAX = $405.6M (used: liquidation, $405.6M). Claims = current face value + 3 months accrued interest.
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $405.6M | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($16.2M) | |||||
| ABL Revolver | 1 | $183.9M | $183.9M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| First-Lien Term Loan | 2 | $533.4M | $205.5M | 38.5% | $327.9M | 61.5% |
| Second-Lien Notes 11.0% | 3 | $256.9M | $0.0M | 0.0% | $256.9M | 100.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 7.5% | 4 | $305.6M | $0.0M | 0.0% | $305.6M | 100.0% |
| Total claims | $1.3B | $389.4M | $890.4M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||