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Brightwater Retail Holdings · BWR

DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLD

How one assumption propagates: statements → cash flow → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns

ANALYST PROJECTION

Stage	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
① Revenue growth (avg) → revenue (period 5)	-1.0% → $2.3B	-2.8% → $2.1B	-8.2% → $1.5B
② EBITDA margin (period 1 → 5) → trough EBITDA	6.5% → 7.3% → $154M	3.5% → 4.1% → $49M	1.0% → 1.0% → $15M
③ Cumulative FCF (5 periods)	($47M)	($481M)	($698M)
④ Rate shock → period-1 cash interest	+0bp → $119M	+150bp → $130M	+300bp → $140M
⑤ Peak net leverage · min EBITDA/interest	7.9x · 1.21x	28.6x · 0.37x	124.6x · 0.11x
⑥ Covenants: first breach	none	FY2026E	FY2026E
⑦ Refinancing tests (pass / fail)	4 / 0	0 / 4	0 / 4
⑧ Payment default	FY2027E	FY2027E	FY2027E
⑨ Recovery value → target-tranche recovery	$630M (going concern) → 87%	$530M (liquidation) → 55%	$406M (liquidation) → 28%
⑩ IRR · MOIC	13.1% · 1.39x	0.7% · 1.02x	-13.9% · 0.71x

Scenario probabilities: Base Case 55% · Downside 30% · Severe Downside 15% (analyst assumption). Edit any assumption in the lab below to watch every stage move.

Scenario assumptions

	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
Revenue growth (period 1 / period 5)	-1.0% / -1.0%	-7.8% / -1.0%	-23.4% / -1.0%
EBITDA margin (period 1 / period 5)	6.5% / 7.3%	3.5% / 4.1%	1.0% / 1.0%
Capex % revenue	2.0%	1.9%	1.6%
Other cash items % revenue (+ outflow)	0.0%	0.2%	0.6%
Net asset sales (period 1, $M)	$0M	$0M	$0M
Floating-rate shock	+0 bp	+150 bp	+300 bp
Refinancing rate	11.0%	13.5%	16.0%
Market access: max net leverage / min coverage	8.5x / 1.20x	5.5x / 1.80x	5.0x / 2.00x
Exit multiple / distressed multiple	6.5x / 4.0x	5.0x / 4.0x	3.5x / 4.0x
Exit price cap (non-default)	100	90	70
Asset value decline / liquidation recovery	0% / 60%	15% / 60%	35% / 60%

EBITDA ($M)

Free cash flow ($M)

Net debt / EBITDA

Scenario engine — change assumptions and watch them propagate

Start from:Edits flow through statements → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns.

Assumptions (edit)

	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue growth	%	%	%	%	%
EBITDA margin	%	%	%	%	%
Asset sales ($M)

Capex % rev%NWC % Δrev%Other cash items % rev%Floating-rate shock%Refinancing rate%Max refi net lev (x)Min refi coverage (x)Exit multiple (x)Exit price cap (%)Distressed multiple (x)Asset value decline%Liquidation recovery%

Result — First-Lien Term Loan @ 78

Default?

Yes — FY2027E

Covenant breaches

Recovery

55%

IRR

0.7%

MOIC

1.02x

Lines: Base EBITDA (blue) vs your custom case (orange), $M.

$M	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue	$2.2B	$2.1B	$2.1B	$2.1B	$2.1B
EBITDA	$77M	$49M	$61M	$73M	$85M
Cash interest	$130M	$131M	$128M	$128M	$127M
FCF	($76M)	($116M)	($110M)	($96M)	($83M)
Cash	$0M	($121M)	($237M)	($338M)	($426M)
Total debt	$1.3B	$1.3B	$1.3B	$1.3B	$1.3B
Net lev.	16.5x	28.6x	24.6x	21.9x	19.8x
EBITDA/int.	0.6x	0.4x	0.5x	0.6x	0.7x