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Redwood Broadband · RWBB

DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLD

How one assumption propagates: statements → cash flow → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns

ANALYST PROJECTION

Stage	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
① Revenue growth (avg) → revenue (period 5)	-1.5% → $1.5B	-2.4% → $1.4B	-6.0% → $1.2B
② EBITDA margin (period 1 → 5) → trough EBITDA	38.0% → 38.8% → $576M	36.0% → 36.4% → $516M	33.2% → 34.0% → $386M
③ Cumulative FCF (5 periods)	($435M)	($679M)	($1.0B)
④ Rate shock → period-1 cash interest	+0bp → $348M	+150bp → $376M	+300bp → $405M
⑤ Peak net leverage · min EBITDA/interest	7.8x · 1.54x	9.2x · 1.40x	12.9x · 0.96x
⑥ Covenants: first breach	FY2029E	FY2026E	FY2026E
⑦ Refinancing tests (pass / fail)	4 / 0	0 / 4	0 / 4
⑧ Payment default	FY2027E	FY2027E	FY2027E
⑨ Recovery value → target-tranche recovery	$3.3B (going concern) → 100%	$2.9B (going concern) → 80%	$2.1B (going concern) → 6%
⑩ IRR · MOIC	18.3% · 1.58x	11.0% · 1.32x	-40.6% · 0.35x

Scenario probabilities: Base Case 55% · Downside 30% · Severe Downside 15% (analyst assumption). Edit any assumption in the lab below to watch every stage move.

Scenario assumptions

	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
Revenue growth (period 1 / period 5)	-1.5% / -1.5%	-5.4% / -1.5%	-16.2% / -1.5%
EBITDA margin (period 1 / period 5)	38.0% / 38.8%	36.0% / 36.4%	33.2% / 34.0%
Capex % revenue	21.0%	19.9%	16.8%
Other cash items % revenue (+ outflow)	0.0%	0.2%	0.6%
Net asset sales (period 1, $M)	$0M	$0M	$0M
Floating-rate shock	+0 bp	+150 bp	+300 bp
Refinancing rate	9.5%	12.0%	14.5%
Market access: max net leverage / min coverage	8.5x / 1.20x	5.5x / 1.80x	5.0x / 2.00x
Exit multiple / distressed multiple	6.3x / 5.5x	4.8x / 5.5x	3.3x / 5.5x
Exit price cap (non-default)	100	90	70
Asset value decline / liquidation recovery	0% / 55%	15% / 55%	35% / 55%

EBITDA ($M)

Free cash flow ($M)

Net debt / EBITDA

Scenario engine — change assumptions and watch them propagate

Start from:Edits flow through statements → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns.

Assumptions (edit)

	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue growth	%	%	%	%	%
EBITDA margin	%	%	%	%	%
Asset sales ($M)

Capex % rev%NWC % Δrev%Other cash items % rev%Floating-rate shock%Refinancing rate%Max refi net lev (x)Min refi coverage (x)Exit multiple (x)Exit price cap (%)Distressed multiple (x)Asset value decline%Liquidation recovery%

Result — Second-Lien Notes 10.50% @ 78

Default?

Yes — FY2027E

Covenant breaches

Recovery

80%

IRR

11.0%

MOIC

1.32x

Lines: Base EBITDA (blue) vs your custom case (orange), $M.

$M	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue	$1.5B	$1.5B	$1.5B	$1.4B	$1.4B
EBITDA	$545M	$518M	$520M	$518M	$516M
Cash interest	$376M	$370M	$363M	$362M	$360M
FCF	($134M)	($147M)	($137M)	($133M)	($129M)
Cash	$0M	($164M)	($318M)	($468M)	($614M)
Total debt	$4.2B	$4.2B	$4.1B	$4.1B	$4.1B
Net lev.	7.7x	8.4x	8.6x	8.9x	9.2x
EBITDA/int.	1.4x	1.4x	1.4x	1.4x	1.4x