Redwood Broadband · RWBB
DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLDRecovery waterfall by scenario
ANALYST PROJECTIONRecovery value = MAX(going-concern value, liquidation value) + cash, less administrative costs, then distributed by seniority (strict absolute priority; equal ranks pari passu). Going concern = distressed EV/EBITDA multiple × EBITDA at the valuation event; liquidation = asset base × (1 − decline) × liquidation recovery. Valuation event = the payment-default period, or — if no default is modelled — a hypothetical default at the trough-EBITDA period (so protection is always measured). Specific liens are paid from their own collateral pool; any deficiency joins general creditors. Illustrative appraised / collateral value (DEMO)
Base Case — FY2027E (modelled payment default)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $3.3B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($130.5M) | |||||
| Revolver | 1 | $148.5M | $148.5M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $1.7B | $1.7B | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Second-Lien Notes 10.50% | 2 | $1.0B | $1.0B | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 6.50% | 3 | $1.3B | $256.3M | 19.4% | $1.1B | 80.6% |
| Total claims | $4.2B | $3.1B | $1.1B | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||
Downside — FY2027E (modelled payment default)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $2.9B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($114.0M) | |||||
| Revolver | 1 | $204.9M | $204.9M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $1.7B | $1.7B | 100.0% | ($0.0M) | -0.0% |
| Second-Lien Notes 10.50% | 2 | $1.0B | $826.0M | 80.5% | $200.2M | 19.5% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 6.50% | 3 | $1.3B | $0.0M | 0.0% | $1.3B | 100.0% |
| Total claims | $4.3B | $2.7B | $1.5B | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||
Severe Downside — FY2027E (modelled payment default)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $2.1B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($84.8M) | |||||
| Revolver | 1 | $258.4M | $258.4M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $1.7B | $1.7B | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Second-Lien Notes 10.50% | 2 | $1.0B | $64.9M | 6.3% | $961.3M | 93.7% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 6.50% | 3 | $1.3B | $0.0M | 0.0% | $1.3B | 100.0% |
| Total claims | $4.3B | $2.0B | $2.3B | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||
Recovery lab — change valuation assumptions and watch the waterfall re-allocate
Going-concern $2.1B vs liquidation $1.9B → recovery value = MAX = $2.1B (used: going concern, $2.1B). Claims = current face value + 3 months accrued interest.
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $2.1B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($84.9M) | |||||
| Revolver | 1 | $203.8M | $203.8M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $1.7B | $1.7B | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Second-Lien Notes 10.50% | 2 | $1.0B | $98.6M | 9.6% | $927.7M | 90.4% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 6.50% | 3 | $1.3B | $0.0M | 0.0% | $1.3B | 100.0% |
| Total claims | $4.3B | $2.0B | $2.2B | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||