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Pinnacle Oilfield Services · PNOS

DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLD

How one assumption propagates: statements → cash flow → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns

ANALYST PROJECTION

Stage	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
① Revenue growth (avg) → revenue (period 5)	2.0% → $1.7B	-1.7% → $1.4B	-8.4% → $930M
② EBITDA margin (period 1 → 5) → trough EBITDA	20.0% → 20.8% → $306M	16.5% → 17.2% → $197M	11.6% → 13.0% → $82M
③ Cumulative FCF (5 periods)	$444M	$169M	($74M)
④ Rate shock → period-1 cash interest	+0bp → $66M	+150bp → $66M	+300bp → $66M
⑤ Peak net leverage · min EBITDA/interest	1.7x · 4.63x	2.6x · 2.98x	7.2x · 1.24x
⑥ Covenants: first breach	none	none	none
⑦ Refinancing tests (pass / fail)	3 / 0	3 / 0	0 / 3
⑧ Payment default	none	none	FY2029E
⑨ Recovery value → target-tranche recovery	$1.4B (going concern) → 100%	$1.0B (going concern) → 100%	$497M (liquidation) → 100%
⑩ IRR · MOIC	7.2% · 1.22x	4.1% · 1.12x	6.5% · 1.31x

Scenario probabilities: Base Case 55% · Downside 30% · Severe Downside 15% (analyst assumption). Edit any assumption in the lab below to watch every stage move.

Scenario assumptions

	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
Revenue growth (period 1 / period 5)	2.0% / 2.0%	-9.0% / 2.0%	-27.0% / 2.0%
EBITDA margin (period 1 / period 5)	20.0% / 20.8%	16.5% / 17.2%	11.6% / 13.0%
Capex % revenue	9.0%	8.5%	7.2%
Other cash items % revenue (+ outflow)	0.0%	0.2%	0.6%
Net asset sales (period 1, $M)	$0M	$0M	$0M
Floating-rate shock	+0 bp	+150 bp	+300 bp
Refinancing rate	8.5%	11.0%	13.5%
Market access: max net leverage / min coverage	8.5x / 1.20x	5.5x / 1.80x	5.0x / 2.00x
Exit multiple / distressed multiple	5.5x / 3.5x	4.0x / 3.5x	3.0x / 3.5x
Exit price cap (non-default)	100	90	70
Asset value decline / liquidation recovery	0% / 45%	15% / 45%	35% / 45%

EBITDA ($M)

Free cash flow ($M)

Net debt / EBITDA

Scenario engine — change assumptions and watch them propagate

Start from:Edits flow through statements → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns.

Assumptions (edit)

	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue growth	%	%	%	%	%
EBITDA margin	%	%	%	%	%
Asset sales ($M)

Capex % rev%NWC % Δrev%Other cash items % rev%Floating-rate shock%Refinancing rate%Max refi net lev (x)Min refi coverage (x)Exit multiple (x)Exit price cap (%)Distressed multiple (x)Asset value decline%Liquidation recovery%

Result — Senior Secured Notes 8.00% @ 101.5

Default?

Covenant breaches

Recovery

100%

IRR

4.1%

MOIC

1.12x

Lines: Base EBITDA (blue) vs your custom case (orange), $M.

$M	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue	$1.4B	$1.3B	$1.3B	$1.3B	$1.4B
EBITDA	$225M	$197M	$208M	$222M	$236M
Cash interest	$66M	$66M	$66M	$66M	$43M
FCF	$51M	$23M	$19M	$25M	$52M
Cash	$311M	$333M	$352M	$0M	$0M
Total debt	$850M	$850M	$850M	$472M	$421M
Net lev.	2.4x	2.6x	2.4x	2.1x	1.8x
EBITDA/int.	3.4x	3.0x	3.1x	3.4x	5.5x