Pinnacle Oilfield Services · PNOS
DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLDRecovery waterfall by scenario
ANALYST PROJECTIONRecovery value = MAX(going-concern value, liquidation value) + cash, less administrative costs, then distributed by seniority (strict absolute priority; equal ranks pari passu). Going concern = distressed EV/EBITDA multiple × EBITDA at the valuation event; liquidation = asset base × (1 − decline) × liquidation recovery. Valuation event = the payment-default period, or — if no default is modelled — a hypothetical default at the trough-EBITDA period (so protection is always measured). Specific liens are paid from their own collateral pool; any deficiency joins general creditors. Illustrative appraised / collateral value (DEMO)
Base Case — FY2026E (hypothetical default at trough EBITDA; no default modelled)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $1.4B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($56.1M) | |||||
| Senior Secured Notes 8.00% | 1 | $612.0M | $612.0M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 7.25% | 3 | $254.5M | $254.5M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Total claims | $866.5M | $866.5M | $0.0M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $480.5M | In the money | ||||
Downside — FY2027E (hypothetical default at trough EBITDA; no default modelled)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $1.0B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($40.9M) | |||||
| Senior Secured Notes 8.00% | 1 | $612.0M | $612.0M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 7.25% | 3 | $254.5M | $254.5M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Total claims | $866.5M | $866.5M | $0.0M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $114.9M | In the money | ||||
Severe Downside — FY2029E (modelled payment default)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $497.3M | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($19.9M) | |||||
| Senior Secured Notes 8.00% | 1 | $417.2M | $417.2M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 7.25% | 3 | $254.5M | $60.1M | 23.6% | $194.4M | 76.4% |
| Total claims | $671.8M | $477.4M | $194.4M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||
Recovery lab — change valuation assumptions and watch the waterfall re-allocate
Going-concern $287.0M vs liquidation $497.3M → recovery value = MAX = $497.3M (used: liquidation, $497.3M). Claims = current face value + 3 months accrued interest.
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $497.3M | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($19.9M) | |||||
| Senior Secured Notes 8.00% | 1 | $612.0M | $477.4M | 78.0% | $134.6M | 22.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 7.25% | 3 | $254.5M | $0.0M | 0.0% | $254.5M | 100.0% |
| Total claims | $866.5M | $477.4M | $389.2M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||