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Orchard Foods · ORCH
DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLDCredit metrics — FY2025A
DEMO DATA inputs · CALCULATED metrics| Metric | Value | Formula | Raw inputs used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total debt | $2.2B | Σ tranche principal (face value) | debt=2200.0 |
| Net debt | $2.0B | Total debt − cash | debt=2200.0 · cash=150.0 |
| Gross leverage (Debt / EBITDA) | 4.58x | Total debt ÷ EBITDA | debt=2200.0 · ebitda=480.0 |
| Secured leverage | 1.88x | Secured debt ÷ EBITDA | secured=900.0 · ebitda=480.0 |
| Net leverage | 4.27x | Net debt ÷ EBITDA | netDebt=2050.0 · ebitda=480.0 |
| Interest coverage (EBIT / interest) | 2.44x | EBIT ÷ interest expense | ebit=375.0 · interest=153.7 |
| EBITDA / interest | 3.12x | EBITDA ÷ interest expense | ebitda=480.0 · interest=153.7 |
| FCF / debt | 8.3% | Free cash flow ÷ total debt | fcf=183.4 · debt=2200.0 |
| Debt service coverage | 2.06x | (EBITDA − capex − taxes) ÷ (interest + mandatory amortization) | ebitda=480.0 · capex=90.0 · taxes=55.3 · interest=153.7 · amort=9.0 |
| Cash conversion | 81.3% | (EBITDA − capex) ÷ EBITDA | ebitda=480.0 · capex=90.0 |
| Liquidity ratio | 0.92x | (Cash + undrawn revolver) ÷ (debt due next period + amortization + interest) | liquidity=150.0 · stObl=162.7 |
| Current ratio | 1.69x | Current assets ÷ (current liabilities ex-debt + debt due next period) | currentAssets=1050.0 · curLiab=620.0 |
| Short-term debt / liquidity | 0.00x | Debt due next period ÷ (cash + undrawn revolver) | std=0.00 · liquidity=150.0 |
Credit scorecard — deterministic, auditable
Score 66.6 / 100 · Moderate| Factor | Measure | Value | Best | Worst | Points | Max | Proj. base | Proj. downside | Proj. severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leverage | Net debt / LTM EBITDA | 4.27 | 2 | 7 | 8.2 | 15 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 0.8 |
| Coverage | LTM EBITDA / interest expense | 3.12 | 5 | 1 | 8.0 | 15 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 |
| Liquidity | Cash + undrawn revolver vs next-period obligations | 0.92 | 2 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 10 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 5.9 |
| Free cash flow | LTM FCF / total debt | 0.08 | 0.12 | -0.02 | 7.4 | 10 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 4.2 |
| Maturity risk | Share of debt maturing within 3 periods | 0.00 | 0 | 0.5 | 10.0 | 10 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Margin stability | Std-dev of annual EBITDA margin | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 10.0 | 10 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Revenue stability | Std-dev of annual revenue growth | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 8.0 | 8 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| Asset coverage | Asset base / total debt | 1.50 | 2 | 0.6 | 7.7 | 12 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 |
| Industry risk | Sector factor (config.ts) | 0.45 | 1 | 0 | 4.5 | 10 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Total | 66.6 | 100 | 74.9 | 65.8 | 53.5 | ||||
Why did the score change?
FY2024A (same capital structure) → FY2025A: 67.7 → 66.6
- • Net leverage broadly stable at 4.3x
- ▼ Interest coverage fell from 3.3x to 3.1x (-0.7 pts, negative)
- ▼ Liquidity ratio fell from 1.0x to 0.9x (-0.3 pts, negative)
- • FCF / debt broadly stable at 8.3%
- • Near-term maturity share unchanged at 0%
- • Margin volatility unchanged at 0.4 pts
- • Revenue volatility unchanged at 2.5 pts
- • Asset coverage unchanged at 1.50x
- • Industry risk factor unchanged at 0.45
Each factor earns its weight linearly between a “worst” (0 pts) and “best” (full pts) threshold; weights and thresholds live in src/lib/config.ts. “Proj.” columns re-score the first projected period of each scenario. Risk bands: ≥75 Low · ≥60 Moderate · ≥45 Elevated · else High.
Covenant analysis
Metrics are computed from the projection by the scenario engine — no covenant output is typed in. Headroom = distance to the covenant (positive = cushion). Hypothetical covenants are UNDERWRITING ASSUMPTION; disclosed covenants are tested on a model-basis proxy.
Base Case: no breachDownside: no breachSevere Downside: 5 failed tests; first breach FY2026E
Maximum net leverage UNDERWRITING ASSUMPTION HYPOTHETICAL — underwriting assumption
| FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | FY2030E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current metric | 6.73x | 8.40x | 7.92x | 7.27x | 6.58x |
| Covenant | ≤ 5.75x | ≤ 5.75x | ≤ 5.75x | ≤ 5.75x | ≤ 5.75x |
| Headroom | −0.98x (-17%) | −2.65x (-46%) | −2.17x (-38%) | −1.52x (-26%) | −0.83x (-14%) |
| Status | BREACH | BREACH | BREACH | BREACH | BREACH |
Projected credit metrics by scenario
ANALYST PROJECTION| Scenario | Metric | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | FY2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | Net debt / EBITDA | 3.9x | 3.4x | 2.9x | 2.5x | 1.9x |
| EBITDA / cash interest | 3.2x | 3.3x | 3.4x | 3.5x | 6.2x | |
| DSCR | 2.1x | 2.2x | 2.2x | 2.3x | 4.1x | |
| Liquidity ($M) | $321M | $502M | $693M | $29M | $0M | |
| Downside | Net debt / EBITDA | 4.8x | 4.9x | 4.5x | 4.0x | 3.5x |
| EBITDA / cash interest | 2.4x | 2.3x | 2.4x | 2.5x | 3.5x | |
| DSCR | 1.6x | 1.5x | 1.6x | 1.7x | 2.3x | |
| Liquidity ($M) | $274M | $368M | $464M | $0M | $0M | |
| Severe Downside | Net debt / EBITDA | 6.7x | 8.4x | 7.9x | 7.3x | 6.6x |
| EBITDA / cash interest | 1.6x | 1.3x | 1.4x | 1.5x | 1.9x | |
| DSCR | 1.2x | 0.9x | 1.0x | 1.1x | 1.4x | |
| Liquidity ($M) | $226M | $228M | $226M | $0M | $0M |
Red = payment default reached in or before that period. After a default the model keeps rolling mechanically for illustration; the recovery waterfall is struck at the default period.
Sources & data lineage (3)
| Source | Document | Data type | Period | Accession | Doc date | Retrieved | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CreditIQ demo dataset | Orchard Foods — illustrative financial statements FY2022–FY2025 | Income statement / cash flow | FY2022–FY2025 | — | 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-31 | DEMO DATA |
| CreditIQ demo dataset | Orchard Foods — illustrative capital structure & covenants | Debt schedule | As of 2026-03-31 | — | 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-31 | DEMO DATA |
| CreditIQ demo dataset | Illustrative indicative bid marks (% of par) | Market price | 2026-03-31 | — | 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-31 | DEMO DATA |