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Orchard Foods · ORCH

DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLD

How one assumption propagates: statements → cash flow → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns

ANALYST PROJECTION

Stage	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
① Revenue growth (avg) → revenue (period 5)	1.0% → $3.2B	-1.0% → $2.8B	-4.7% → $2.3B
② EBITDA margin (period 1 → 5) → trough EBITDA	16.0% → 16.8% → $485M	14.1% → 14.5% → $371M	11.5% → 12.3% → $233M
③ Cumulative FCF (5 periods)	$1.0B	$611M	$171M
④ Rate shock → period-1 cash interest	+0bp → $154M	+150bp → $167M	+300bp → $181M
⑤ Peak net leverage · min EBITDA/interest	3.9x · 3.16x	4.9x · 2.26x	8.4x · 1.31x
⑥ Covenants: first breach	none	none	FY2026E
⑦ Refinancing tests (pass / fail)	2 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 2
⑧ Payment default	none	none	FY2029E
⑨ Recovery value → target-tranche recovery	$3.5B (going concern) → 100%	$2.8B (going concern) → 100%	$1.7B (going concern) → 39%
⑩ IRR · MOIC	10.5% · 1.32x	7.3% · 1.21x	-6.3% · 0.77x

Scenario probabilities: Base Case 55% · Downside 30% · Severe Downside 15% (analyst assumption). Edit any assumption in the lab below to watch every stage move.

Scenario assumptions

	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
Revenue growth (period 1 / period 5)	1.0% / 1.0%	-5.1% / 1.0%	-15.3% / 1.0%
EBITDA margin (period 1 / period 5)	16.0% / 16.8%	14.1% / 14.5%	11.5% / 12.3%
Capex % revenue	3.0%	2.8%	2.4%
Other cash items % revenue (+ outflow)	0.0%	0.2%	0.6%
Net asset sales (period 1, $M)	$0M	$0M	$0M
Floating-rate shock	+0 bp	+150 bp	+300 bp
Refinancing rate	8.0%	10.5%	13.0%
Market access: max net leverage / min coverage	8.5x / 1.20x	5.5x / 1.80x	5.0x / 2.00x
Exit multiple / distressed multiple	8.5x / 6.5x	7.0x / 6.5x	5.5x / 6.5x
Exit price cap (non-default)	100	90	70
Asset value decline / liquidation recovery	0% / 50%	15% / 50%	35% / 50%

EBITDA ($M)

Free cash flow ($M)

Net debt / EBITDA

Scenario engine — change assumptions and watch them propagate

Start from:Edits flow through statements → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns.

Assumptions (edit)

	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue growth	%	%	%	%	%
EBITDA margin	%	%	%	%	%
Asset sales ($M)

Capex % rev%NWC % Δrev%Other cash items % rev%Floating-rate shock%Refinancing rate%Max refi net lev (x)Min refi coverage (x)Exit multiple (x)Exit price cap (%)Distressed multiple (x)Asset value decline%Liquidation recovery%

Result — Subordinated Notes 8.25% @ 94

Default?

Covenant breaches

Recovery

100%

IRR

7.3%

MOIC

1.21x

Lines: Base EBITDA (blue) vs your custom case (orange), $M.

$M	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue	$2.8B	$2.8B	$2.8B	$2.8B	$2.8B
EBITDA	$402M	$371M	$383M	$398M	$412M
Cash interest	$167M	$164M	$161M	$160M	$116M
FCF	$133M	$104M	$104M	$113M	$157M
Cash	$274M	$368M	$464M	$0M	$0M
Total debt	$2.2B	$2.2B	$2.2B	$1.6B	$1.4B
Net lev.	4.8x	4.9x	4.5x	4.0x	3.5x
EBITDA/int.	2.4x	2.3x	2.4x	2.5x	3.5x