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Orchard Foods · ORCH

DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLD

Recovery waterfall by scenario

ANALYST PROJECTION

Recovery value = MAX(going-concern value, liquidation value) + cash, less administrative costs, then distributed by seniority (strict absolute priority; equal ranks pari passu). Going concern = distressed EV/EBITDA multiple × EBITDA at the valuation event; liquidation = asset base × (1 − decline) × liquidation recovery. Valuation event = the payment-default period, or — if no default is modelled — a hypothetical default at the trough-EBITDA period (so protection is always measured). Specific liens are paid from their own collateral pool; any deficiency joins general creditors. Illustrative appraised / collateral value (DEMO)

Base Case — FY2026E (hypothetical default at trough EBITDA; no default modelled)

Going concern

$3.2B

Liquidation

$1.6B

Recovery value = MAX (+ cash $321M)

$3.5B · going concern

Target tranche · LGD

100% recovery · 0% loss

Claim (by seniority)	Rank	Claim	Recovery	Recovery %	Loss	Loss %
Recovery value			$3.5B
Less: administrative / DIP costs			($138.9M)
First-Lien Term Loan	1	$907.9M	$907.9M	100.0%	$0.0M	0.0%
Senior Notes 5.50%	3	$811.0M	$811.0M	100.0%	$0.0M	0.0%
Subordinated Notes 8.25%	4	$510.3M	$510.3M	100.0%	$0.0M	0.0%
Total claims		$2.2B	$2.2B		$0.0M
Equity (residual)			$1.1B	In the money

Downside — FY2027E (hypothetical default at trough EBITDA; no default modelled)

Going concern

$2.4B

Liquidation

$1.4B

Recovery value = MAX (+ cash $368M)

$2.8B · going concern

Target tranche · LGD

100% recovery · 0% loss

Claim (by seniority)	Rank	Claim	Recovery	Recovery %	Loss	Loss %
Recovery value			$2.8B
Less: administrative / DIP costs			($111.2M)
First-Lien Term Loan	1	$901.5M	$901.5M	100.0%	$0.0M	0.0%
Senior Notes 5.50%	3	$811.0M	$811.0M	100.0%	$0.0M	0.0%
Subordinated Notes 8.25%	4	$510.3M	$510.3M	100.0%	$0.0M	0.0%
Total claims		$2.2B	$2.2B		$0.0M
Equity (residual)			$446.2M	In the money

Severe Downside — FY2029E (modelled payment default)

Going concern

$1.7B

Liquidation

$1.1B

Recovery value = MAX (+ cash $0M)

$1.7B · going concern

Target tranche · LGD

39% recovery · 61% loss

Claim (by seniority)	Rank	Claim	Recovery	Recovery %	Loss	Loss %
Recovery value			$1.7B
Less: administrative / DIP costs			($69.0M)
First-Lien Term Loan	1	$645.2M	$645.2M	100.0%	$0.0M	0.0%
Senior Notes 5.50%	3	$811.0M	$811.0M	100.0%	$0.0M	0.0%
Subordinated Notes 8.25%	4	$510.3M	$200.3M	39.3%	$310.0M	60.7%
Total claims		$2.0B	$1.7B		$310.0M
Equity (residual)			$0.0M	Wiped out

Recovery lab — change valuation assumptions and watch the waterfall re-allocate

Distressed EBITDA ($M)
Distressed multiple (x)
Asset base decline %
Liquidation recovery %
Admin costs %
Override value ($M)

Going-concern $1.5B vs liquidation $1.1B → recovery value = MAX = $1.5B (used: going concern, $1.5B). Claims = current face value + 3 months accrued interest.

Claim (by seniority)	Rank	Claim	Recovery	Recovery %	Loss	Loss %
Recovery value			$1.5B
Less: administrative / DIP costs			($60.6M)
First-Lien Term Loan	1	$917.1M	$917.1M	100.0%	$0.0M	0.0%
Senior Notes 5.50%	3	$811.0M	$536.8M	66.2%	$274.2M	33.8%
Subordinated Notes 8.25%	4	$510.3M	$0.0M	0.0%	$510.3M	100.0%
Total claims		$2.2B	$1.5B		$784.5M
Equity (residual)			$0.0M	Wiped out