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Northgate Software · NGS

DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLD

How one assumption propagates: statements → cash flow → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns

ANALYST PROJECTION

Stage	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
① Revenue growth (avg) → revenue (period 5)	9.0% → $1.3B	0.3% → $828M	-4.2% → $655M
② EBITDA margin (period 1 → 5) → trough EBITDA	31.0% → 31.8% → $277M	29.3% → 29.6% → $218M	26.8% → 27.5% → $164M
③ Cumulative FCF (5 periods)	$984M	$611M	$393M
④ Rate shock → period-1 cash interest	+0bp → $45M	+150bp → $52M	+300bp → $59M
⑤ Peak net leverage · min EBITDA/interest	1.1x · 6.13x	1.5x · 4.31x	2.0x · 2.87x
⑥ Covenants: first breach	none	none	none
⑦ Refinancing tests (pass / fail)	2 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 0
⑧ Payment default	none	none	none
⑨ Recovery value → target-tranche recovery	$2.5B (going concern) → 100%	$2.1B (going concern) → 100%	$1.6B (going concern) → 100%
⑩ IRR · MOIC	8.1% · 1.25x	4.9% · 1.14x	-2.4% · 0.94x

Scenario probabilities: Base Case 55% · Downside 30% · Severe Downside 15% (analyst assumption). Edit any assumption in the lab below to watch every stage move.

Scenario assumptions

	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
Revenue growth (period 1 / period 5)	9.0% / 9.0%	-4.8% / 2.0%	-14.4% / 2.0%
EBITDA margin (period 1 / period 5)	31.0% / 31.8%	29.3% / 29.6%	26.8% / 27.5%
Capex % revenue	3.0%	2.8%	2.4%
Other cash items % revenue (+ outflow)	0.0%	0.2%	0.6%
Net asset sales (period 1, $M)	$0M	$0M	$0M
Floating-rate shock	+0 bp	+150 bp	+300 bp
Refinancing rate	8.0%	10.5%	13.0%
Market access: max net leverage / min coverage	8.5x / 1.20x	5.5x / 1.80x	5.0x / 2.00x
Exit multiple / distressed multiple	14.0x / 8.0x	12.5x / 8.0x	11.0x / 8.0x
Exit price cap (non-default)	100	90	70
Asset value decline / liquidation recovery	0% / 30%	15% / 30%	35% / 30%

EBITDA ($M)

Free cash flow ($M)

Net debt / EBITDA

Scenario engine — change assumptions and watch them propagate

Start from:Edits flow through statements → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns.

Assumptions (edit)

	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue growth	%	%	%	%	%
EBITDA margin	%	%	%	%	%
Asset sales ($M)

Capex % rev%NWC % Δrev%Other cash items % rev%Floating-rate shock%Refinancing rate%Max refi net lev (x)Min refi coverage (x)Exit multiple (x)Exit price cap (%)Distressed multiple (x)Asset value decline%Liquidation recovery%

Result — Senior Unsecured Notes @ 96

Default?

Covenant breaches

Recovery

100%

IRR

4.9%

MOIC

1.14x

Lines: Base EBITDA (blue) vs your custom case (orange), $M.

$M	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue	$781M	$762M	$796M	$812M	$828M
EBITDA	$228M	$218M	$230M	$238M	$245M
Cash interest	$52M	$50M	$49M	$49M	$48M
FCF	$120M	$113M	$120M	$126M	$132M
Cash	$256M	$364M	$479M	$601M	$301M
Total debt	$596M	$591M	$587M	$582M	$150M
Net lev.	1.5x	1.0x	0.5x	-0.1x	-0.6x
EBITDA/int.	4.4x	4.3x	4.7x	4.9x	5.1x