Northgate Software · NGS
DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLDRecovery waterfall by scenario
ANALYST PROJECTIONRecovery value = MAX(going-concern value, liquidation value) + cash, less administrative costs, then distributed by seniority (strict absolute priority; equal ranks pari passu). Going concern = distressed EV/EBITDA multiple × EBITDA at the valuation event; liquidation = asset base × (1 − decline) × liquidation recovery. Valuation event = the payment-default period, or — if no default is modelled — a hypothetical default at the trough-EBITDA period (so protection is always measured). Specific liens are paid from their own collateral pool; any deficiency joins general creditors. Illustrative appraised / collateral value (DEMO)
Base Case — FY2026E (hypothetical default at trough EBITDA; no default modelled)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $2.5B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($100.3M) | |||||
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $454.2M | $454.2M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes | 3 | $152.5M | $152.5M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Total claims | $606.7M | $606.7M | $0.0M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $1.8B | In the money | ||||
Downside — FY2027E (hypothetical default at trough EBITDA; no default modelled)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $2.1B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($84.2M) | |||||
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $451.0M | $451.0M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes | 3 | $152.5M | $152.5M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Total claims | $603.5M | $603.5M | $0.0M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $1.4B | In the money | ||||
Severe Downside — FY2027E (hypothetical default at trough EBITDA; no default modelled)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $1.6B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($64.2M) | |||||
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $452.6M | $452.6M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes | 3 | $152.5M | $152.5M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Total claims | $605.2M | $605.2M | $0.0M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $936.2M | In the money | ||||
Recovery lab — change valuation assumptions and watch the waterfall re-allocate
Going-concern $1.3B vs liquidation $136.5M → recovery value = MAX = $1.3B (used: going concern, $1.3B). Claims = current face value + 3 months accrued interest.
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $1.3B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($52.5M) | |||||
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $458.8M | $458.8M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes | 3 | $152.5M | $152.5M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Total claims | $611.3M | $611.3M | $0.0M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $648.2M | In the money | ||||