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Northgate Software · NGS
DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLDCredit metrics — FY2025A
DEMO DATA inputs · CALCULATED metrics| Metric | Value | Formula | Raw inputs used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total debt | $600.0M | Σ tranche principal (face value) | debt=600.0 |
| Net debt | $460.0M | Total debt − cash | debt=600.0 · cash=140.0 |
| Gross leverage (Debt / EBITDA) | 2.36x | Total debt ÷ EBITDA | debt=600.0 · ebitda=254.2 |
| Secured leverage | 1.77x | Secured debt ÷ EBITDA | secured=450.0 · ebitda=254.2 |
| Net leverage | 1.81x | Net debt ÷ EBITDA | netDebt=460.0 · ebitda=254.2 |
| Interest coverage (EBIT / interest) | 4.71x | EBIT ÷ interest expense | ebit=213.2 · interest=45.2 |
| EBITDA / interest | 5.62x | EBITDA ÷ interest expense | ebitda=254.2 · interest=45.2 |
| FCF / debt | 23.1% | Free cash flow ÷ total debt | fcf=138.9 · debt=600.0 |
| Debt service coverage | 3.77x | (EBITDA − capex − taxes) ÷ (interest + mandatory amortization) | ebitda=254.2 · capex=24.6 · taxes=42.0 · interest=45.2 · amort=4.50 |
| Cash conversion | 90.3% | (EBITDA − capex) ÷ EBITDA | ebitda=254.2 · capex=24.6 |
| Liquidity ratio | 4.83x | (Cash + undrawn revolver) ÷ (debt due next period + amortization + interest) | liquidity=240.0 · stObl=49.7 |
| Current ratio | 1.27x | Current assets ÷ (current liabilities ex-debt + debt due next period) | currentAssets=330.0 · curLiab=260.0 |
| Short-term debt / liquidity | 0.00x | Debt due next period ÷ (cash + undrawn revolver) | std=0.00 · liquidity=240.0 |
Credit scorecard — deterministic, auditable
Score 89.7 / 100 · Low| Factor | Measure | Value | Best | Worst | Points | Max | Proj. base | Proj. downside | Proj. severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leverage | Net debt / LTM EBITDA | 1.81 | 2 | 7 | 15.0 | 15 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| Coverage | LTM EBITDA / interest expense | 5.62 | 5 | 1 | 15.0 | 15 | 15.0 | 12.7 | 8.3 |
| Liquidity | Cash + undrawn revolver vs next-period obligations | 4.83 | 2 | 0.5 | 10.0 | 10 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Free cash flow | LTM FCF / total debt | 0.23 | 0.12 | -0.02 | 10.0 | 10 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Maturity risk | Share of debt maturing within 3 periods | 0.00 | 0 | 0.5 | 10.0 | 10 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Margin stability | Std-dev of annual EBITDA margin | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 8.8 | 10 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 |
| Revenue stability | Std-dev of annual revenue growth | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 8.0 | 8 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| Asset coverage | Asset base / total debt | 1.17 | 2 | 0.6 | 4.9 | 12 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| Industry risk | Sector factor (config.ts) | 0.80 | 1 | 0 | 8.0 | 10 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| Total | 89.7 | 100 | 89.7 | 87.4 | 82.9 | ||||
Why did the score change?
FY2024A (same capital structure) → FY2025A: 89.5 → 89.7
- • Net leverage broadly stable at 1.8x
- • Interest coverage broadly stable at 5.6x
- • Liquidity ratio broadly stable at 4.8x
- • FCF / debt broadly stable at 23.1%
- • Near-term maturity share unchanged at 0%
- • Margin volatility unchanged at 1.5 pts
- • Revenue volatility unchanged at 0.9 pts
- • Asset coverage unchanged at 1.17x
- • Industry risk factor unchanged at 0.80
Each factor earns its weight linearly between a “worst” (0 pts) and “best” (full pts) threshold; weights and thresholds live in src/lib/config.ts. “Proj.” columns re-score the first projected period of each scenario. Risk bands: ≥75 Low · ≥60 Moderate · ≥45 Elevated · else High.
Covenant analysis
Metrics are computed from the projection by the scenario engine — no covenant output is typed in. Headroom = distance to the covenant (positive = cushion). Hypothetical covenants are UNDERWRITING ASSUMPTION; disclosed covenants are tested on a model-basis proxy.
Base Case: no breachDownside: no breachSevere Downside: no breach
No active covenants.
Projected credit metrics by scenario
ANALYST PROJECTION| Scenario | Metric | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | FY2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | Net debt / EBITDA | 1.1x | 0.4x | -0.2x | -0.8x | -1.3x |
| EBITDA / cash interest | 6.1x | 6.9x | 7.9x | 8.7x | 9.6x | |
| DSCR | 4.1x | 4.6x | 5.2x | 5.7x | 6.3x | |
| Liquidity ($M) | $390M | $560M | $751M | $964M | $774M | |
| Downside | Net debt / EBITDA | 1.5x | 1.0x | 0.5x | -0.1x | -0.6x |
| EBITDA / cash interest | 4.4x | 4.3x | 4.7x | 4.9x | 5.1x | |
| DSCR | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.2x | 3.3x | 3.5x | |
| Liquidity ($M) | $356M | $464M | $579M | $701M | $401M | |
| Severe Downside | Net debt / EBITDA | 2.0x | 1.8x | 1.4x | 0.9x | 0.4x |
| EBITDA / cash interest | 3.2x | 2.9x | 3.0x | 3.1x | 3.3x | |
| DSCR | 2.3x | 2.1x | 2.2x | 2.3x | 2.4x | |
| Liquidity ($M) | $326M | $393M | $461M | $533M | $183M |
Red = payment default reached in or before that period. After a default the model keeps rolling mechanically for illustration; the recovery waterfall is struck at the default period.
Sources & data lineage (3)
| Source | Document | Data type | Period | Accession | Doc date | Retrieved | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CreditIQ demo dataset | Northgate Software — illustrative financial statements FY2022–FY2025 | Income statement / cash flow | FY2022–FY2025 | — | 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-31 | DEMO DATA |
| CreditIQ demo dataset | Northgate Software — illustrative capital structure & covenants | Debt schedule | As of 2026-03-31 | — | 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-31 | DEMO DATA |
| CreditIQ demo dataset | Illustrative indicative bid marks (% of par) | Market price | 2026-03-31 | — | 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-31 | DEMO DATA |