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Kestrel Auto Components · KACO
DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONPASSCredit metrics — FY2025A
DEMO DATA inputs · CALCULATED metrics| Metric | Value | Formula | Raw inputs used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total debt | $1.1B | Σ tranche principal (face value) | debt=1090.0 |
| Net debt | $1.0B | Total debt − cash | debt=1090.0 · cash=60.0 |
| Gross leverage (Debt / EBITDA) | 6.73x | Total debt ÷ EBITDA | debt=1090.0 · ebitda=162.0 |
| Secured leverage | 4.26x | Secured debt ÷ EBITDA | secured=690.0 · ebitda=162.0 |
| Net leverage | 6.36x | Net debt ÷ EBITDA | netDebt=1030.0 · ebitda=162.0 |
| Interest coverage (EBIT / interest) | 0.84x | EBIT ÷ interest expense | ebit=81.0 · interest=96.5 |
| EBITDA / interest | 1.68x | EBITDA ÷ interest expense | ebitda=162.0 · interest=96.5 |
| FCF / debt | -0.4% | Free cash flow ÷ total debt | fcf=-4.31 · debt=1090.0 |
| Debt service coverage | 0.79x | (EBITDA − capex − taxes) ÷ (interest + mandatory amortization) | ebitda=162.0 · capex=81.0 · taxes=0.00 · interest=96.5 · amort=6.0 |
| Cash conversion | 50.0% | (EBITDA − capex) ÷ EBITDA | ebitda=162.0 · capex=81.0 |
| Liquidity ratio | 2.15x | (Cash + undrawn revolver) ÷ (debt due next period + amortization + interest) | liquidity=220.0 · stObl=102.5 |
| Current ratio | 1.11x | Current assets ÷ (current liabilities ex-debt + debt due next period) | currentAssets=620.0 · curLiab=560.0 |
| Short-term debt / liquidity | 0.00x | Debt due next period ÷ (cash + undrawn revolver) | std=0.00 · liquidity=220.0 |
Credit scorecard — deterministic, auditable
Score 37.7 / 100 · High| Factor | Measure | Value | Best | Worst | Points | Max | Proj. base | Proj. downside | Proj. severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leverage | Net debt / LTM EBITDA | 6.36 | 2 | 7 | 1.9 | 15 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Coverage | LTM EBITDA / interest expense | 1.68 | 5 | 1 | 2.5 | 15 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Liquidity | Cash + undrawn revolver vs next-period obligations | 2.15 | 2 | 0.5 | 10.0 | 10 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 4.5 |
| Free cash flow | LTM FCF / total debt | -0.00 | 0.12 | -0.02 | 1.1 | 10 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Maturity risk | Share of debt maturing within 3 periods | 1.00 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Margin stability | Std-dev of annual EBITDA margin | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 8.9 | 10 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 |
| Revenue stability | Std-dev of annual revenue growth | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 7.8 | 8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 |
| Asset coverage | Asset base / total debt | 0.83 | 2 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 12 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Industry risk | Sector factor (config.ts) | 0.35 | 1 | 0 | 3.5 | 10 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Total | 37.7 | 100 | 36.2 | 28.4 | 26.6 | ||||
Why did the score change?
FY2024A (same capital structure) → FY2025A: 43.6 → 37.7
- ▼ Net leverage increased from 5.5x to 6.4x (-2.6 pts, negative)
- ▼ Interest coverage fell from 2.1x to 1.7x (-1.4 pts, negative)
- • Liquidity ratio broadly stable at 2.1x
- ▼ FCF / debt fell from 2.2% to -0.4% (-1.9 pts, negative)
- • Near-term maturity share unchanged at 100%
- • Margin volatility unchanged at 1.5 pts
- • Revenue volatility unchanged at 3.3 pts
- • Asset coverage unchanged at 0.83x
- • Industry risk factor unchanged at 0.35
Each factor earns its weight linearly between a “worst” (0 pts) and “best” (full pts) threshold; weights and thresholds live in src/lib/config.ts. “Proj.” columns re-score the first projected period of each scenario. Risk bands: ≥75 Low · ≥60 Moderate · ≥45 Elevated · else High.
Covenant analysis
Metrics are computed from the projection by the scenario engine — no covenant output is typed in. Headroom = distance to the covenant (positive = cushion). Hypothetical covenants are UNDERWRITING ASSUMPTION; disclosed covenants are tested on a model-basis proxy.
Base Case: no breachDownside: 5 failed tests; first breach FY2026ESevere Downside: 5 failed tests; first breach FY2026E
Maximum net leverage UNDERWRITING ASSUMPTION HYPOTHETICAL — underwriting assumption
| FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | FY2030E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current metric | 84.50x | 110.12x | 126.74x | 139.20x | 66.72x |
| Covenant | ≤ 6.50x | ≤ 6.50x | ≤ 6.50x | ≤ 6.50x | ≤ 6.50x |
| Headroom | −78.00x (-1200%) | −103.62x (-1594%) | −120.24x (-1850%) | −132.70x (-2042%) | −60.22x (-927%) |
| Status | BREACH | BREACH | BREACH | BREACH | BREACH |
Projected credit metrics by scenario
ANALYST PROJECTION| Scenario | Metric | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | FY2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | Net debt / EBITDA | 6.4x | 6.2x | 6.1x | 6.0x | 5.9x |
| EBITDA / cash interest | 1.7x | 1.8x | 1.7x | 1.6x | 1.6x | |
| DSCR | 0.8x | 0.9x | 0.9x | 0.8x | 0.8x | |
| Liquidity ($M) | $197M | $197M | $165M | $140M | $118M | |
| Downside | Net debt / EBITDA | 11.9x | 17.8x | 16.5x | 15.4x | 14.3x |
| EBITDA / cash interest | 0.9x | 0.6x | 0.8x | 0.9x | 1.0x | |
| DSCR | 0.2x | 0.0x | 0.1x | 0.2x | 0.3x | |
| Liquidity ($M) | $148M | $148M | $148M | $148M | $148M | |
| Severe Downside | Net debt / EBITDA | 84.5x | 110.1x | 126.7x | 139.2x | 66.7x |
| EBITDA / cash interest | 0.1x | 0.1x | 0.1x | 0.1x | 0.2x | |
| DSCR | -0.3x | -0.2x | -0.2x | -0.2x | -0.1x | |
| Liquidity ($M) | $120M | $120M | $120M | $120M | $120M |
Red = payment default reached in or before that period. After a default the model keeps rolling mechanically for illustration; the recovery waterfall is struck at the default period.
Sources & data lineage (3)
| Source | Document | Data type | Period | Accession | Doc date | Retrieved | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CreditIQ demo dataset | Kestrel Auto Components — illustrative financial statements FY2022–FY2025 | Income statement / cash flow | FY2022–FY2025 | — | 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-31 | DEMO DATA |
| CreditIQ demo dataset | Kestrel Auto Components — illustrative capital structure & covenants | Debt schedule | As of 2026-03-31 | — | 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-31 | DEMO DATA |
| CreditIQ demo dataset | Illustrative indicative bid marks (% of par) | Market price | 2026-03-31 | — | 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-31 | DEMO DATA |