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Kestrel Auto Components · KACO

DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONPASS

How one assumption propagates: statements → cash flow → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns

ANALYST PROJECTION

Stage	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
① Revenue growth (avg) → revenue (period 5)	1.0% → $1.9B	-2.1% → $1.6B	-8.3% → $1.1B
② EBITDA margin (period 1 → 5) → trough EBITDA	9.0% → 9.8% → $164M	5.6% → 6.3% → $67M	1.0% → 2.2% → $11M
③ Cumulative FCF (5 periods)	($72M)	($423M)	($661M)
④ Rate shock → period-1 cash interest	+0bp → $97M	+150bp → $107M	+300bp → $117M
⑤ Peak net leverage · min EBITDA/interest	6.4x · 1.61x	17.8x · 0.64x	139.2x · 0.09x
⑥ Covenants: first breach	none	FY2026E	FY2026E
⑦ Refinancing tests (pass / fail)	3 / 0	0 / 3	0 / 3
⑧ Payment default	FY2027E	FY2027E	FY2027E
⑨ Recovery value → target-tranche recovery	$760M (going concern) → 100%	$383M (liquidation) → 52%	$293M (liquidation) → 38%
⑩ IRR · MOIC	14.0% · 1.43x	-4.6% · 0.89x	-10.8% · 0.75x

Scenario probabilities: Base Case 55% · Downside 30% · Severe Downside 15% (analyst assumption). Edit any assumption in the lab below to watch every stage move.

Scenario assumptions

	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
Revenue growth (period 1 / period 5)	1.0% / 1.0%	-8.7% / 1.0%	-26.1% / 1.0%
EBITDA margin (period 1 / period 5)	9.0% / 9.8%	5.6% / 6.3%	1.0% / 2.2%
Capex % revenue	4.5%	4.3%	3.6%
Other cash items % revenue (+ outflow)	0.0%	0.2%	0.6%
Net asset sales (period 1, $M)	$0M	$0M	$0M
Floating-rate shock	+0 bp	+150 bp	+300 bp
Refinancing rate	10.5%	13.0%	15.5%
Market access: max net leverage / min coverage	8.5x / 1.20x	5.5x / 1.80x	5.0x / 2.00x
Exit multiple / distressed multiple	6.5x / 4.5x	5.0x / 4.5x	3.5x / 4.5x
Exit price cap (non-default)	100	90	70
Asset value decline / liquidation recovery	0% / 50%	15% / 50%	35% / 50%

EBITDA ($M)

Free cash flow ($M)

Net debt / EBITDA

Scenario engine — change assumptions and watch them propagate

Start from:Edits flow through statements → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns.

Assumptions (edit)

	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue growth	%	%	%	%	%
EBITDA margin	%	%	%	%	%
Asset sales ($M)

Capex % rev%NWC % Δrev%Other cash items % rev%Floating-rate shock%Refinancing rate%Max refi net lev (x)Min refi coverage (x)Exit multiple (x)Exit price cap (%)Distressed multiple (x)Asset value decline%Liquidation recovery%

Result — First-Lien Term Loan @ 84

Default?

Yes — FY2027E

Covenant breaches

Recovery

52%

IRR

-4.6%

MOIC

0.89x

Lines: Base EBITDA (blue) vs your custom case (orange), $M.

$M	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue	$1.6B	$1.6B	$1.6B	$1.6B	$1.6B
EBITDA	$92M	$67M	$78M	$90M	$102M
Cash interest	$107M	$106M	$103M	$103M	$102M
FCF	($66M)	($99M)	($97M)	($86M)	($75M)
Cash	$0M	($105M)	($208M)	($300M)	($381M)
Total debt	$1.1B	$1.1B	$1.1B	$1.1B	$1.1B
Net lev.	11.9x	17.8x	16.5x	15.4x	14.3x
EBITDA/int.	0.9x	0.6x	0.8x	0.9x	1.0x