Kestrel Auto Components · KACO
DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONPASSRecovery waterfall by scenario
ANALYST PROJECTIONRecovery value = MAX(going-concern value, liquidation value) + cash, less administrative costs, then distributed by seniority (strict absolute priority; equal ranks pari passu). Going concern = distressed EV/EBITDA multiple × EBITDA at the valuation event; liquidation = asset base × (1 − decline) × liquidation recovery. Valuation event = the payment-default period, or — if no default is modelled — a hypothetical default at the trough-EBITDA period (so protection is always measured). Specific liens are paid from their own collateral pool; any deficiency joins general creditors. Illustrative appraised / collateral value (DEMO)
Base Case — FY2027E (modelled payment default)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $760.2M | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($30.4M) | |||||
| Revolver | 1 | $54.2M | $54.2M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $601.5M | $601.5M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 8.25% | 3 | $408.2M | $74.1M | 18.1% | $334.2M | 81.9% |
| Total claims | $1.1B | $729.8M | $334.2M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||
Downside — FY2027E (modelled payment default)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $382.5M | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($15.3M) | |||||
| Revolver | 1 | $104.4M | $54.1M | 51.9% | $50.2M | 48.1% |
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $603.7M | $313.1M | 51.9% | $290.6M | 48.1% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 8.25% | 3 | $408.2M | $0.0M | 0.0% | $408.2M | 100.0% |
| Total claims | $1.1B | $367.2M | $749.1M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||
Severe Downside — FY2027E (modelled payment default)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $292.5M | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($11.7M) | |||||
| Revolver | 1 | $133.5M | $50.7M | 38.0% | $82.8M | 62.0% |
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $605.9M | $230.1M | 38.0% | $375.8M | 62.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 8.25% | 3 | $408.2M | $0.0M | 0.0% | $408.2M | 100.0% |
| Total claims | $1.1B | $280.8M | $866.8M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||
Recovery lab — change valuation assumptions and watch the waterfall re-allocate
Going-concern $49.5M vs liquidation $292.5M → recovery value = MAX = $292.5M (used: liquidation, $292.5M). Claims = current face value + 3 months accrued interest.
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $292.5M | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($11.7M) | |||||
| Revolver | 1 | $91.8M | $36.5M | 39.8% | $55.3M | 60.2% |
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $614.1M | $244.3M | 39.8% | $369.8M | 60.2% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 8.25% | 3 | $408.2M | $0.0M | 0.0% | $408.2M | 100.0% |
| Total claims | $1.1B | $280.8M | $833.3M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||