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Ironclad Steel Products · ICSP
DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLDCredit metrics — FY2025A
DEMO DATA inputs · CALCULATED metrics| Metric | Value | Formula | Raw inputs used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total debt | $1.0B | Σ tranche principal (face value) | debt=1000.0 |
| Net debt | $790.0M | Total debt − cash | debt=1000.0 · cash=210.0 |
| Gross leverage (Debt / EBITDA) | 2.60x | Total debt ÷ EBITDA | debt=1000.0 · ebitda=384.0 |
| Secured leverage | 1.56x | Secured debt ÷ EBITDA | secured=600.0 · ebitda=384.0 |
| Net leverage | 2.06x | Net debt ÷ EBITDA | netDebt=790.0 · ebitda=384.0 |
| Interest coverage (EBIT / interest) | 3.59x | EBIT ÷ interest expense | ebit=256.0 · interest=71.4 |
| EBITDA / interest | 5.38x | EBITDA ÷ interest expense | ebitda=384.0 · interest=71.4 |
| FCF / debt | 12.9% | Free cash flow ÷ total debt | fcf=128.9 · debt=1000.0 |
| Debt service coverage | 2.49x | (EBITDA − capex − taxes) ÷ (interest + mandatory amortization) | ebitda=384.0 · capex=160.0 · taxes=46.1 · interest=71.4 · amort=0.00 |
| Cash conversion | 58.3% | (EBITDA − capex) ÷ EBITDA | ebitda=384.0 · capex=160.0 |
| Liquidity ratio | 8.54x | (Cash + undrawn revolver) ÷ (debt due next period + amortization + interest) | liquidity=610.0 · stObl=71.4 |
| Current ratio | 1.69x | Current assets ÷ (current liabilities ex-debt + debt due next period) | currentAssets=1050.0 · curLiab=620.0 |
| Short-term debt / liquidity | 0.00x | Debt due next period ÷ (cash + undrawn revolver) | std=0.00 · liquidity=610.0 |
Credit scorecard — deterministic, auditable
Score 92.5 / 100 · Low| Factor | Measure | Value | Best | Worst | Points | Max | Proj. base | Proj. downside | Proj. severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leverage | Net debt / LTM EBITDA | 2.06 | 2 | 7 | 14.8 | 15 | 15.0 | 12.5 | 0.0 |
| Coverage | LTM EBITDA / interest expense | 5.38 | 5 | 1 | 15.0 | 15 | 15.0 | 9.7 | 1.5 |
| Liquidity | Cash + undrawn revolver vs next-period obligations | 8.54 | 2 | 0.5 | 10.0 | 10 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Free cash flow | LTM FCF / total debt | 0.13 | 0.12 | -0.02 | 10.0 | 10 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 4.3 |
| Maturity risk | Share of debt maturing within 3 periods | 0.00 | 0 | 0.5 | 10.0 | 10 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Margin stability | Std-dev of annual EBITDA margin | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 10.0 | 10 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Revenue stability | Std-dev of annual revenue growth | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 6.2 | 8 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| Asset coverage | Asset base / total debt | 2.40 | 2 | 0.6 | 12.0 | 12 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| Industry risk | Sector factor (config.ts) | 0.45 | 1 | 0 | 4.5 | 10 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Total | 92.5 | 100 | 91.3 | 80.9 | 58.5 | ||||
Why did the score change?
FY2024A (same capital structure) → FY2025A: 92.7 → 92.5
- • Net leverage broadly stable at 2.1x
- • Interest coverage broadly stable at 5.4x
- • Liquidity ratio broadly stable at 8.5x
- • FCF / debt broadly stable at 12.9%
- • Near-term maturity share unchanged at 0%
- • Margin volatility unchanged at 0.7 pts
- • Revenue volatility unchanged at 5.7 pts
- • Asset coverage unchanged at 2.40x
- • Industry risk factor unchanged at 0.45
Each factor earns its weight linearly between a “worst” (0 pts) and “best” (full pts) threshold; weights and thresholds live in src/lib/config.ts. “Proj.” columns re-score the first projected period of each scenario. Risk bands: ≥75 Low · ≥60 Moderate · ≥45 Elevated · else High.
Covenant analysis
Metrics are computed from the projection by the scenario engine — no covenant output is typed in. Headroom = distance to the covenant (positive = cushion). Hypothetical covenants are UNDERWRITING ASSUMPTION; disclosed covenants are tested on a model-basis proxy.
Base Case: no breachDownside: no breachSevere Downside: no breach
No active covenants.
Projected credit metrics by scenario
ANALYST PROJECTION| Scenario | Metric | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | FY2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | Net debt / EBITDA | 1.8x | 1.4x | 1.1x | 0.8x | 0.4x |
| EBITDA / cash interest | 5.5x | 5.7x | 5.9x | 6.1x | 10.9x | |
| DSCR | 2.5x | 2.7x | 2.8x | 2.9x | 5.0x | |
| Liquidity ($M) | $710M | $818M | $935M | $660M | $400M | |
| Downside | Net debt / EBITDA | 2.8x | 3.4x | 3.1x | 2.8x | 2.4x |
| EBITDA / cash interest | 3.6x | 2.9x | 3.2x | 3.5x | 5.4x | |
| DSCR | 1.4x | 1.0x | 1.2x | 1.4x | 2.1x | |
| Liquidity ($M) | $673M | $684M | $687M | $400M | $400M | |
| Severe Downside | Net debt / EBITDA | 7.5x | 25.3x | 16.0x | 11.9x | 9.4x |
| EBITDA / cash interest | 1.4x | 0.5x | 0.8x | 1.2x | 1.6x | |
| DSCR | 0.1x | -0.7x | -0.3x | 0.1x | 0.4x | |
| Liquidity ($M) | $650M | $567M | $470M | $400M | $400M |
Red = payment default reached in or before that period. After a default the model keeps rolling mechanically for illustration; the recovery waterfall is struck at the default period.
Sources & data lineage (3)
| Source | Document | Data type | Period | Accession | Doc date | Retrieved | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CreditIQ demo dataset | Ironclad Steel Products — illustrative financial statements FY2022–FY2025 | Income statement / cash flow | FY2022–FY2025 | — | 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-31 | DEMO DATA |
| CreditIQ demo dataset | Ironclad Steel Products — illustrative capital structure & covenants | Debt schedule | As of 2026-03-31 | — | 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-31 | DEMO DATA |
| CreditIQ demo dataset | Illustrative indicative bid marks (% of par) | Market price | 2026-03-31 | — | 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-31 | DEMO DATA |