Ironclad Steel Products · ICSP
DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLDRecovery waterfall by scenario
ANALYST PROJECTIONRecovery value = MAX(going-concern value, liquidation value) + cash, less administrative costs, then distributed by seniority (strict absolute priority; equal ranks pari passu). Going concern = distressed EV/EBITDA multiple × EBITDA at the valuation event; liquidation = asset base × (1 − decline) × liquidation recovery. Valuation event = the payment-default period, or — if no default is modelled — a hypothetical default at the trough-EBITDA period (so protection is always measured). Specific liens are paid from their own collateral pool; any deficiency joins general creditors. Illustrative appraised / collateral value (DEMO)
Base Case — FY2026E (hypothetical default at trough EBITDA; no default modelled)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $2.1B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($82.9M) | |||||
| Senior Secured Notes 6.90% | 1 | $610.4M | $610.4M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 7.50% | 3 | $407.5M | $407.5M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Total claims | $1.0B | $1.0B | $0.0M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $971.9M | In the money | ||||
Downside — FY2027E (hypothetical default at trough EBITDA; no default modelled)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $1.4B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($56.2M) | |||||
| Senior Secured Notes 6.90% | 1 | $610.4M | $610.4M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 7.50% | 3 | $407.5M | $407.5M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Total claims | $1.0B | $1.0B | $0.0M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $332.1M | In the money | ||||
Severe Downside — FY2029E (modelled payment default)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $858.0M | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($34.3M) | |||||
| Senior Secured Notes 6.90% | 1 | $610.4M | $610.4M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 7.50% | 3 | $407.5M | $213.3M | 52.4% | $194.2M | 47.6% |
| Total claims | $1.0B | $823.7M | $194.2M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||
Recovery lab — change valuation assumptions and watch the waterfall re-allocate
Going-concern $148.5M vs liquidation $858.0M → recovery value = MAX = $858.0M (used: liquidation, $858.0M). Claims = current face value + 3 months accrued interest.
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $858.0M | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($34.3M) | |||||
| Senior Secured Notes 6.90% | 1 | $610.4M | $610.4M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 7.50% | 3 | $407.5M | $213.3M | 52.4% | $194.2M | 47.6% |
| Total claims | $1.0B | $823.7M | $194.2M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||