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Ironclad Steel Products · ICSP

DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLD

How one assumption propagates: statements → cash flow → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns

ANALYST PROJECTION

Stage	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
① Revenue growth (avg) → revenue (period 5)	2.0% → $3.5B	-1.5% → $3.0B	-7.8% → $2.1B
② EBITDA margin (period 1 → 5) → trough EBITDA	12.0% → 12.8% → $392M	8.8% → 9.4% → $209M	4.2% → 5.5% → $33M
③ Cumulative FCF (5 periods)	$606M	$135M	($281M)
④ Rate shock → period-1 cash interest	+0bp → $71M	+150bp → $71M	+300bp → $71M
⑤ Peak net leverage · min EBITDA/interest	1.8x · 5.49x	3.4x · 2.93x	25.3x · 0.46x
⑥ Covenants: first breach	none	none	none
⑦ Refinancing tests (pass / fail)	3 / 0	3 / 0	0 / 3
⑧ Payment default	none	none	FY2029E
⑨ Recovery value → target-tranche recovery	$2.1B (going concern) → 100%	$1.4B (liquidation) → 100%	$858M (liquidation) → 52%
⑩ IRR · MOIC	8.5% · 1.26x	5.3% · 1.15x	-3.7% · 0.85x

Scenario probabilities: Base Case 55% · Downside 30% · Severe Downside 15% (analyst assumption). Edit any assumption in the lab below to watch every stage move.

Scenario assumptions

	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
Revenue growth (period 1 / period 5)	2.0% / 2.0%	-8.4% / 2.0%	-25.2% / 2.0%
EBITDA margin (period 1 / period 5)	12.0% / 12.8%	8.8% / 9.4%	4.2% / 5.5%
Capex % revenue	5.0%	4.8%	4.0%
Other cash items % revenue (+ outflow)	0.0%	0.2%	0.6%
Net asset sales (period 1, $M)	$0M	$0M	$0M
Floating-rate shock	+0 bp	+150 bp	+300 bp
Refinancing rate	7.5%	10.0%	12.5%
Market access: max net leverage / min coverage	8.5x / 1.20x	5.5x / 1.80x	5.0x / 2.00x
Exit multiple / distressed multiple	6.0x / 4.5x	4.5x / 4.5x	3.0x / 4.5x
Exit price cap (non-default)	100	90	70
Asset value decline / liquidation recovery	0% / 55%	15% / 55%	35% / 55%

EBITDA ($M)

Free cash flow ($M)

Net debt / EBITDA

Scenario engine — change assumptions and watch them propagate

Start from:Edits flow through statements → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns.

Assumptions (edit)

	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue growth	%	%	%	%	%
EBITDA margin	%	%	%	%	%
Asset sales ($M)

Capex % rev%NWC % Δrev%Other cash items % rev%Floating-rate shock%Refinancing rate%Max refi net lev (x)Min refi coverage (x)Exit multiple (x)Exit price cap (%)Distressed multiple (x)Asset value decline%Liquidation recovery%

Result — Senior Unsecured Notes 7.50% @ 97

Default?

Covenant breaches

Recovery

100%

IRR

5.3%

MOIC

1.15x

Lines: Base EBITDA (blue) vs your custom case (orange), $M.

$M	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue	$2.9B	$2.8B	$2.8B	$2.9B	$3.0B
EBITDA	$256M	$209M	$230M	$253M	$277M
Cash interest	$71M	$71M	$71M	$71M	$51M
FCF	$63M	$11M	$3M	$14M	$44M
Cash	$273M	$284M	$287M	$0M	$0M
Total debt	$1.0B	$1.0B	$1.0B	$700M	$655M
Net lev.	2.8x	3.4x	3.1x	2.8x	2.4x
EBITDA/int.	3.6x	2.9x	3.2x	3.5x	5.4x