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Evergreen Physician Group · EVPG
DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLDCredit metrics — FY2025A
DEMO DATA inputs · CALCULATED metrics| Metric | Value | Formula | Raw inputs used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total debt | $1.6B | Σ tranche principal (face value) | debt=1620.0 |
| Net debt | $1.5B | Total debt − cash | debt=1620.0 · cash=80.0 |
| Gross leverage (Debt / EBITDA) | 6.56x | Total debt ÷ EBITDA | debt=1620.0 · ebitda=247.0 |
| Secured leverage | 4.13x | Secured debt ÷ EBITDA | secured=1020.0 · ebitda=247.0 |
| Net leverage | 6.23x | Net debt ÷ EBITDA | netDebt=1540.0 · ebitda=247.0 |
| Interest coverage (EBIT / interest) | 1.41x | EBIT ÷ interest expense | ebit=190.0 · interest=134.8 |
| EBITDA / interest | 1.83x | EBITDA ÷ interest expense | ebitda=247.0 · interest=134.8 |
| FCF / debt | 2.3% | Free cash flow ÷ total debt | fcf=36.9 · debt=1620.0 |
| Debt service coverage | 1.29x | (EBITDA − capex − taxes) ÷ (interest + mandatory amortization) | ebitda=247.0 · capex=47.5 · taxes=13.8 · interest=134.8 · amort=9.0 |
| Cash conversion | 80.8% | (EBITDA − capex) ÷ EBITDA | ebitda=247.0 · capex=47.5 |
| Liquidity ratio | 1.11x | (Cash + undrawn revolver) ÷ (debt due next period + amortization + interest) | liquidity=160.0 · stObl=143.8 |
| Current ratio | 1.21x | Current assets ÷ (current liabilities ex-debt + debt due next period) | currentAssets=520.0 · curLiab=430.0 |
| Short-term debt / liquidity | 0.00x | Debt due next period ÷ (cash + undrawn revolver) | std=0.00 · liquidity=160.0 |
Credit scorecard — deterministic, auditable
Score 49.3 / 100 · Elevated| Factor | Measure | Value | Best | Worst | Points | Max | Proj. base | Proj. downside | Proj. severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leverage | Net debt / LTM EBITDA | 6.23 | 2 | 7 | 2.3 | 15 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Coverage | LTM EBITDA / interest expense | 1.83 | 5 | 1 | 3.1 | 15 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.0 |
| Liquidity | Cash + undrawn revolver vs next-period obligations | 1.11 | 2 | 0.5 | 4.1 | 10 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.5 |
| Free cash flow | LTM FCF / total debt | 0.02 | 0.12 | -0.02 | 3.1 | 10 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 0.2 |
| Maturity risk | Share of debt maturing within 3 periods | 0.07 | 0 | 0.5 | 8.5 | 10 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| Margin stability | Std-dev of annual EBITDA margin | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 10.0 | 10 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Revenue stability | Std-dev of annual revenue growth | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 8.0 | 8 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| Asset coverage | Asset base / total debt | 0.86 | 2 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 12 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Industry risk | Sector factor (config.ts) | 0.80 | 1 | 0 | 8.0 | 10 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| Total | 49.3 | 100 | 53.3 | 45.0 | 39.5 | ||||
Why did the score change?
FY2024A (same capital structure) → FY2025A: 49.8 → 49.3
- ▲ Net leverage fell from 6.3x to 6.2x (+0.3 pts, positive)
- • Interest coverage broadly stable at 1.8x
- ▼ Liquidity ratio fell from 1.2x to 1.1x (-0.4 pts, negative)
- • FCF / debt broadly stable at 2.3%
- • Near-term maturity share unchanged at 7%
- • Margin volatility unchanged at 0.6 pts
- • Revenue volatility unchanged at 1.9 pts
- • Asset coverage unchanged at 0.86x
- • Industry risk factor unchanged at 0.80
Each factor earns its weight linearly between a “worst” (0 pts) and “best” (full pts) threshold; weights and thresholds live in src/lib/config.ts. “Proj.” columns re-score the first projected period of each scenario. Risk bands: ≥75 Low · ≥60 Moderate · ≥45 Elevated · else High.
Covenant analysis
Metrics are computed from the projection by the scenario engine — no covenant output is typed in. Headroom = distance to the covenant (positive = cushion). Hypothetical covenants are UNDERWRITING ASSUMPTION; disclosed covenants are tested on a model-basis proxy.
Base Case: no breachDownside: 4 failed tests; first breach FY2026ESevere Downside: 5 failed tests; first breach FY2026E
Maximum net leverage UNDERWRITING ASSUMPTION HYPOTHETICAL — underwriting assumption
| FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | FY2030E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current metric | 10.94x | 14.75x | 14.34x | 13.61x | 12.77x |
| Covenant | ≤ 7.00x | ≤ 7.00x | ≤ 7.00x | ≤ 7.00x | ≤ 7.00x |
| Headroom | −3.94x (-56%) | −7.75x (-111%) | −7.34x (-105%) | −6.61x (-94%) | −5.77x (-82%) |
| Status | BREACH | BREACH | BREACH | BREACH | BREACH |
Projected credit metrics by scenario
ANALYST PROJECTION| Scenario | Metric | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | FY2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | Net debt / EBITDA | 5.8x | 5.2x | 4.6x | 4.0x | 3.4x |
| EBITDA / cash interest | 1.9x | 2.3x | 2.5x | 2.6x | 3.0x | |
| DSCR | 1.3x | 1.5x | 1.7x | 1.8x | 2.0x | |
| Liquidity ($M) | $196M | $252M | $321M | $200M | $300M | |
| Downside | Net debt / EBITDA | 7.5x | 8.1x | 7.6x | 7.2x | 6.7x |
| EBITDA / cash interest | 1.4x | 1.3x | 1.5x | 1.5x | 1.6x | |
| DSCR | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.1x | 1.1x | 1.2x | |
| Liquidity ($M) | $171M | $170M | $170M | $170M | $186M | |
| Severe Downside | Net debt / EBITDA | 10.9x | 14.8x | 14.3x | 13.6x | 12.8x |
| EBITDA / cash interest | 0.9x | 0.7x | 0.7x | 0.8x | 0.9x | |
| DSCR | 0.6x | 0.5x | 0.5x | 0.6x | 0.7x | |
| Liquidity ($M) | $125M | $49M | $49M | $49M | $49M |
Red = payment default reached in or before that period. After a default the model keeps rolling mechanically for illustration; the recovery waterfall is struck at the default period.
Sources & data lineage (3)
| Source | Document | Data type | Period | Accession | Doc date | Retrieved | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CreditIQ demo dataset | Evergreen Physician Group — illustrative financial statements FY2022–FY2025 | Income statement / cash flow | FY2022–FY2025 | — | 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-31 | DEMO DATA |
| CreditIQ demo dataset | Evergreen Physician Group — illustrative capital structure & covenants | Debt schedule | As of 2026-03-31 | — | 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-31 | DEMO DATA |
| CreditIQ demo dataset | Illustrative indicative bid marks (% of par) | Market price | 2026-03-31 | — | 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-31 | DEMO DATA |