Evergreen Physician Group · EVPG
DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLDRecovery waterfall by scenario
ANALYST PROJECTIONRecovery value = MAX(going-concern value, liquidation value) + cash, less administrative costs, then distributed by seniority (strict absolute priority; equal ranks pari passu). Going concern = distressed EV/EBITDA multiple × EBITDA at the valuation event; liquidation = asset base × (1 − decline) × liquidation recovery. Valuation event = the payment-default period, or — if no default is modelled — a hypothetical default at the trough-EBITDA period (so protection is always measured). Specific liens are paid from their own collateral pool; any deficiency joins general creditors. Illustrative appraised / collateral value (DEMO)
Base Case — FY2026E (hypothetical default at trough EBITDA; no default modelled)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $1.6B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($62.2M) | |||||
| Revolver | 1 | $3.8M | $3.8M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $910.2M | $910.2M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 8.00% | 3 | $612.0M | $579.9M | 94.7% | $32.1M | 5.3% |
| Total claims | $1.5B | $1.5B | $32.1M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||
Downside — FY2028E (modelled payment default)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $1.2B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($47.3M) | |||||
| Revolver | 1 | $30.6M | $30.6M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $894.0M | $894.0M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 8.00% | 3 | $612.0M | $211.5M | 34.6% | $400.5M | 65.4% |
| Total claims | $1.5B | $1.1B | $400.5M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||
Severe Downside — FY2028E (modelled payment default)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $715.6M | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($28.6M) | |||||
| Revolver | 1 | $155.1M | $101.3M | 65.3% | $53.9M | 34.7% |
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $897.2M | $585.7M | 65.3% | $311.6M | 34.7% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 8.00% | 3 | $612.0M | $0.0M | 0.0% | $612.0M | 100.0% |
| Total claims | $1.7B | $686.9M | $977.4M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||
Recovery lab — change valuation assumptions and watch the waterfall re-allocate
Going-concern $666.0M vs liquidation $273.0M → recovery value = MAX = $666.0M (used: going concern, $666.0M). Claims = current face value + 3 months accrued interest.
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $666.0M | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($26.6M) | |||||
| Revolver | 1 | $122.3M | $75.1M | 61.4% | $47.3M | 38.6% |
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $919.4M | $564.3M | 61.4% | $355.1M | 38.6% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 8.00% | 3 | $612.0M | $0.0M | 0.0% | $612.0M | 100.0% |
| Total claims | $1.7B | $639.4M | $1.0B | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||