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Evergreen Physician Group · EVPG

DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLD

How one assumption propagates: statements → cash flow → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns

ANALYST PROJECTION

Stage	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
① Revenue growth (avg) → revenue (period 5)	5.0% → $2.4B	-0.1% → $1.9B	-4.2% → $1.5B
② EBITDA margin (period 1 → 5) → trough EBITDA	13.0% → 13.8% → $259M	11.3% → 11.6% → $186M	8.8% → 9.5% → $111M
③ Cumulative FCF (5 periods)	$388M	$76M	($300M)
④ Rate shock → period-1 cash interest	+0bp → $135M	+150bp → $150M	+300bp → $165M
⑤ Peak net leverage · min EBITDA/interest	5.8x · 1.92x	8.1x · 1.35x	14.8x · 0.70x
⑥ Covenants: first breach	none	FY2026E	FY2026E
⑦ Refinancing tests (pass / fail)	2 / 0	0 / 2	0 / 2
⑧ Payment default	none	FY2028E	FY2028E
⑨ Recovery value → target-tranche recovery	$1.6B (going concern) → 100%	$1.2B (going concern) → 100%	$716M (going concern) → 65%
⑩ IRR · MOIC	11.0% · 1.34x	10.3% · 1.41x	2.4% · 1.08x

Scenario probabilities: Base Case 55% · Downside 30% · Severe Downside 15% (analyst assumption). Edit any assumption in the lab below to watch every stage move.

Scenario assumptions

	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
Revenue growth (period 1 / period 5)	5.0% / 5.0%	-4.8% / 2.0%	-14.4% / 2.0%
EBITDA margin (period 1 / period 5)	13.0% / 13.8%	11.3% / 11.6%	8.8% / 9.5%
Capex % revenue	2.5%	2.4%	2.0%
Other cash items % revenue (+ outflow)	0.0%	0.2%	0.6%
Net asset sales (period 1, $M)	$0M	$0M	$0M
Floating-rate shock	+0 bp	+150 bp	+300 bp
Refinancing rate	9.5%	12.0%	14.5%
Market access: max net leverage / min coverage	8.5x / 1.20x	5.5x / 1.80x	5.0x / 2.00x
Exit multiple / distressed multiple	9.5x / 6.0x	8.0x / 6.0x	6.5x / 6.0x
Exit price cap (non-default)	100	90	70
Asset value decline / liquidation recovery	0% / 30%	15% / 30%	35% / 30%

EBITDA ($M)

Free cash flow ($M)

Net debt / EBITDA

Scenario engine — change assumptions and watch them propagate

Start from:Edits flow through statements → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns.

Assumptions (edit)

	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue growth	%	%	%	%	%
EBITDA margin	%	%	%	%	%
Asset sales ($M)

Capex % rev%NWC % Δrev%Other cash items % rev%Floating-rate shock%Refinancing rate%Max refi net lev (x)Min refi coverage (x)Exit multiple (x)Exit price cap (%)Distressed multiple (x)Asset value decline%Liquidation recovery%

Result — First-Lien Term Loan @ 93

Default?

Yes — FY2028E

Covenant breaches

Recovery

100%

IRR

10.3%

MOIC

1.41x

Lines: Base EBITDA (blue) vs your custom case (orange), $M.

$M	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue	$1.8B	$1.8B	$1.8B	$1.8B	$1.9B
EBITDA	$203M	$186M	$197M	$208M	$218M
Cash interest	$150M	$138M	$135M	$134M	$133M
FCF	$20M	$8M	$7M	$16M	$24M
Cash	$0M	$0M	($2M)	$0M	$0M
Total debt	$1.5B	$1.5B	$1.5B	$1.5B	$1.5B
Net lev.	7.5x	8.1x	7.6x	7.2x	6.7x
EBITDA/int.	1.4x	1.3x	1.5x	1.5x	1.6x