Dashboard › Real Underwriting Cases › AMC Networks (AMC Global Media)
AMC Networks (AMC Global Media) · AMCX
PUBLIC DATA CASEHYPOTHETICAL INVESTMENT TERMSHOLDCredit metrics — LTM Jun-26
PUBLIC FILING inputs · CALCULATED metrics| Metric | Value | Formula | Raw inputs used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total debt | $1.7B | Σ tranche principal (face value) | debt=1735.6 |
| Net debt | $1.3B | Total debt − cash | debt=1735.6 · cash=464.0 |
| Gross leverage (Debt / EBITDA) | 5.54x | Total debt ÷ EBITDA | debt=1735.6 · ebitda=313.0 |
| Secured leverage | 4.20x | Secured debt ÷ EBITDA | secured=1315.1 · ebitda=313.0 |
| Net leverage | 4.06x | Net debt ÷ EBITDA | netDebt=1271.6 · ebitda=313.0 |
| Interest coverage (EBIT / interest) | 1.19x | EBIT ÷ interest expense | ebit=203.4 · interest=170.5 |
| EBITDA / interest | 1.84x | EBITDA ÷ interest expense | ebitda=313.0 · interest=170.5 |
| FCF / debt | 11.0% | Free cash flow ÷ total debt | fcf=190.5 · debt=1735.6 |
| Debt service coverage | 1.65x | (EBITDA − capex − taxes) ÷ (interest + mandatory amortization) | ebitda=313.0 · capex=28.2 · taxes=3.79 · interest=170.5 · amort=0.00 |
| Cash conversion | 91.0% | (EBITDA − capex) ÷ EBITDA | ebitda=313.0 · capex=28.2 |
| Liquidity ratio | 2.72x | (Cash + undrawn revolver) ÷ (debt due next period + amortization + interest) | liquidity=464.0 · stObl=170.5 |
| Current ratio | 1.76x | Current assets ÷ (current liabilities ex-debt + debt due next period) | currentAssets=1262.3 · curLiab=716.8 |
| Short-term debt / liquidity | 0.00x | Debt due next period ÷ (cash + undrawn revolver) | std=0.00 · liquidity=464.0 |
Credit scorecard — deterministic, auditable
Score 59.4 / 100 · Elevated| Factor | Measure | Value | Best | Worst | Points | Max | Proj. base | Proj. downside | Proj. severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leverage | Net debt / LTM EBITDA | 4.06 | 2 | 7 | 8.8 | 15 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 0.0 |
| Coverage | LTM EBITDA / interest expense | 1.84 | 5 | 1 | 3.1 | 15 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| Liquidity | Cash + undrawn revolver vs next-period obligations | 2.72 | 2 | 0.5 | 10.0 | 10 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Free cash flow | LTM FCF / total debt | 0.11 | 0.12 | -0.02 | 9.3 | 10 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 0.1 |
| Maturity risk | Share of debt maturing within 3 periods | 0.24 | 0 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 10 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| Margin stability | Std-dev of annual EBITDA margin | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 5.1 | 10 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| Revenue stability | Std-dev of annual revenue growth | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 7.9 | 8 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 |
| Asset coverage | Asset base / total debt | 1.41 | 2 | 0.6 | 7.0 | 12 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| Industry risk | Sector factor (config.ts) | 0.30 | 1 | 0 | 3.0 | 10 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Total | 59.4 | 100 | 57.8 | 50.3 | 38.7 | ||||
Why did the score change?
FY2025A (10-K, 2025-12-31) → LTM Jun-26: 64.8 → 59.4
- ▼ Net leverage increased from 3.1x to 4.1x (-2.9 pts, negative)
- ▼ Interest coverage fell from 2.4x to 1.8x (-2.1 pts, negative)
- • Liquidity ratio broadly stable at 2.7x
- ▼ FCF / debt fell from 15.3% to 11.0% (-0.7 pts, negative)
- • Near-term maturity share unchanged at 24%
- • Margin volatility unchanged at 3.0 pts
- • Revenue volatility unchanged at 3.1 pts
- ▲ Asset coverage increased from 1.38x to 1.41x (+0.3 pts, positive)
- • Industry risk factor unchanged at 0.30
Each factor earns its weight linearly between a “worst” (0 pts) and “best” (full pts) threshold; weights and thresholds live in src/lib/config.ts. “Proj.” columns re-score the first projected period of each scenario. Risk bands: ≥75 Low · ≥60 Moderate · ≥45 Elevated · else High.
Covenant analysis
Metrics are computed from the projection by the scenario engine — no covenant output is typed in. Headroom = distance to the covenant (positive = cushion). Hypothetical covenants are UNDERWRITING ASSUMPTION; disclosed covenants are tested on a model-basis proxy.
Base Case: no breachDownside: 11 failed tests; first breach LTM Jun-28ESevere Downside: 13 failed tests; first breach LTM Jun-27E
Hypothetical maintenance covenant: max net leverage (AOI basis) UNDERWRITING ASSUMPTION HYPOTHETICAL — underwriting assumption
| LTM Jun-27E | LTM Jun-28E | LTM Jun-29E | LTM Jun-30E | LTM Jun-31E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current metric | 4.91x | 5.66x | 6.30x | 6.95x | 7.34x |
| Covenant | ≤ 5.25x | ≤ 5.25x | ≤ 5.00x | ≤ 5.00x | ≤ 5.00x |
| Headroom | 0.34x (7%) | −0.41x (-8%) | −1.30x (-26%) | −1.95x (-39%) | −2.34x (-47%) |
| Status | PASS | BREACH | BREACH | BREACH | BREACH |
Hypothetical maintenance covenant: min interest coverage (AOI / interest) UNDERWRITING ASSUMPTION HYPOTHETICAL — underwriting assumption
| LTM Jun-27E | LTM Jun-28E | LTM Jun-29E | LTM Jun-30E | LTM Jun-31E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current metric | 1.59x | 1.36x | 1.22x | 1.24x | 1.18x |
| Covenant | ≥ 1.40x | ≥ 1.40x | ≥ 1.40x | ≥ 1.50x | ≥ 1.50x |
| Headroom | 0.19x (14%) | −0.04x (-3%) | −0.18x (-13%) | −0.26x (-17%) | −0.32x (-21%) |
| Status | PASS | BREACH | BREACH | BREACH | BREACH |
Hypothetical maintenance covenant: min liquidity ($M) UNDERWRITING ASSUMPTION HYPOTHETICAL — underwriting assumption
| LTM Jun-27E | LTM Jun-28E | LTM Jun-29E | LTM Jun-30E | LTM Jun-31E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current metric | $519M | $540M | $120M | $123M | $119M |
| Covenant | ≥ $200M | ≥ $200M | ≥ $200M | ≥ $200M | ≥ $200M |
| Headroom | $319M (159%) | $340M (170%) | −$80M (-40%) | −$77M (-38%) | −$81M (-41%) |
| Status | PASS | PASS | BREACH | BREACH | BREACH |
Disclosed covenants shown for reference (not tested)
| Covenant | Reported | Threshold | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Credit agreement: max total net leverage (5.75x to 3/31/26, then 5.50x) — TERMINATED 2026-05-12 | 4.41x reported at 2025-12-31 | ≤ 5.50x | Defined on the credit-agreement basis (4.41x reported at FY2025). Applied only while the Term Loan A / revolver existed. |
| Credit agreement: min interest coverage (1.50x; 1.75x from 12/31/28) — TERMINATED 2026-05-12 | 2.01x reported at 2025-12-31 | ≥ 1.50x | Reported 2.01x at FY2025. |
Projected credit metrics by scenario
ANALYST PROJECTION| Scenario | Metric | LTM Jun-27E | LTM Jun-28E | LTM Jun-29E | LTM Jun-30E | LTM Jun-31E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | Net debt / EBITDA | 3.8x | 3.6x | 3.4x | 3.1x | 2.9x |
| EBITDA / cash interest | 1.9x | 1.8x | 1.8x | 1.9x | 1.8x | |
| DSCR | 1.7x | 1.6x | 1.5x | 1.6x | 1.6x | |
| Liquidity ($M) | $590M | $706M | $391M | $499M | $599M | |
| Downside | Net debt / EBITDA | 4.9x | 5.7x | 6.3x | 6.9x | 7.3x |
| EBITDA / cash interest | 1.6x | 1.4x | 1.2x | 1.2x | 1.2x | |
| DSCR | 1.4x | 1.2x | 1.1x | 1.1x | 1.0x | |
| Liquidity ($M) | $519M | $540M | $120M | $123M | $119M | |
| Severe Downside | Net debt / EBITDA | 7.5x | 10.8x | 13.7x | 15.7x | 17.6x |
| EBITDA / cash interest | 1.1x | 0.8x | 0.7x | 0.7x | 0.6x | |
| DSCR | 1.0x | 0.7x | 0.6x | 0.6x | 0.5x | |
| Liquidity ($M) | $432M | $359M | $0M | $0M | $0M |
Red = payment default reached in or before that period. After a default the model keeps rolling mechanically for illustration; the recovery waterfall is struck at the default period.
Sources & data lineage (4)
| Source | Document | Data type | Period | Accession | Doc date | Retrieved | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEC EDGAR | AMC Networks Inc. (now AMC Global Media Inc.) — Form 10-K, period ended 2025-12-31 | Annual report | 2025-12-31 | 0001514991-26-000011 | 2026-02-11 | 2026-10-07 | PUBLIC FILING |
| SEC EDGAR | AMC Networks Inc. — Form 10-K, period ended 2024-12-31 | Annual report | 2024-12-31 | 0001514991-25-000009 | 2025-02-14 | 2026-10-07 | PUBLIC FILING |
| SEC EDGAR | AMC Global Media Inc. — Form 10-Q, period ended 2026-06-30 | Quarterly report | 2026-06-30 | 0001514991-26-000089 | 2026-07-30 | 2026-10-07 | PUBLIC FILING |
| FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) | SOFR — Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3.90% on 2026-10-06) | Macro rate | — | — | 2026-10-06 | 2026-10-07 | PUBLIC FILING |