Dashboard › Real Underwriting Cases › AMC Networks (AMC Global Media)

AMC Networks (AMC Global Media) · AMCX

PUBLIC DATA CASEHYPOTHETICAL INVESTMENT TERMSHOLD

How one assumption propagates: statements → cash flow → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns

ANALYST PROJECTION

Stage	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
① Revenue growth (avg) → revenue (period 5)	-3.6% → $1.9B	-6.2% → $1.6B	-10.0% → $1.3B
② EBITDA margin (period 1 → 5) → trough EBITDA	14.0% → 13.4% → $251M	12.0% → 10.0% → $163M	9.0% → 7.0% → $93M
③ Cumulative FCF (5 periods)	$556M	$75M	($362M)
④ Rate shock → period-1 cash interest	+0bp → $156M	+150bp → $156M	+300bp → $156M
⑤ Peak net leverage · min EBITDA/interest	3.8x · 1.76x	7.3x · 1.18x	17.6x · 0.64x
⑥ Covenants: first breach	none	LTM Jun-28E	LTM Jun-27E
⑦ Refinancing tests (pass / fail)	2 / 0	0 / 2	0 / 2
⑧ Payment default	none	none	LTM Jun-29E
⑨ Recovery value → target-tranche recovery	$1.9B (going concern) → 100%	$852M (going concern) → 61%	$479M (liquidation) → 34%
⑩ IRR · MOIC	12.6% · 1.38x	6.5% · 1.19x	-10.8% · 0.70x

Scenario probabilities: Base Case 45% · Downside 35% · Severe Downside 20% (analyst assumption). Edit any assumption in the lab below to watch every stage move.

Scenario assumptions

	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
Revenue growth (period 1 / period 5)	-4.5% / -3.0%	-8.0% / -5.0%	-14.0% / -6.0%
EBITDA margin (period 1 / period 5)	14.0% / 13.4%	12.0% / 10.0%	9.0% / 7.0%
Capex % revenue	1.4%	1.3%	1.1%
Other cash items % revenue (+ outflow)	-1.0%	0.5%	1.5%
Net asset sales (period 1, $M)	$0M	$0M	$0M
Floating-rate shock	+0 bp	+150 bp	+300 bp
Refinancing rate	11.0%	13.0%	15.0%
Market access: max net leverage / min coverage	6.0x / 1.25x	5.5x / 1.50x	5.0x / 1.75x
Exit multiple / distressed multiple	5.5x / 5.0x	5.0x / 4.5x	4.0x / 4.0x
Exit price cap (non-default)	100	95	80
Asset value decline / liquidation recovery	0% / 30%	15% / 30%	35% / 30%

EBITDA ($M)

Free cash flow ($M)

Net debt / EBITDA

Scenario engine — change assumptions and watch them propagate

Start from:Edits flow through statements → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns.

Assumptions (edit)

	LTM Jun-27E	LTM Jun-28E	LTM Jun-29E	LTM Jun-30E	LTM Jun-31E
Revenue growth	%	%	%	%	%
EBITDA margin	%	%	%	%	%
Asset sales ($M)

Capex % rev%NWC % Δrev%Other cash items % rev%Floating-rate shock%Refinancing rate%Max refi net lev (x)Min refi coverage (x)Exit multiple (x)Exit price cap (%)Distressed multiple (x)Asset value decline%Liquidation recovery%

Result — 10.50% Senior Secured Notes due 2032 @ 95

Default?

Covenant breaches

Recovery

61%

IRR

6.5%

MOIC

1.19x

Lines: Base EBITDA (blue) vs your custom case (orange), $M.

$M	LTM Jun-27E	LTM Jun-28E	LTM Jun-29E	LTM Jun-30E	LTM Jun-31E
Revenue	$2.1B	$1.9B	$1.8B	$1.7B	$1.6B
EBITDA	$248M	$211M	$190M	$172M	$163M
Cash interest	$156M	$156M	$156M	$138M	$138M
FCF	$55M	$21M	$1M	$3M	($4M)
Cash	$519M	$540M	$120M	$123M	$119M
Total debt	$1.7B	$1.7B	$1.3B	$1.3B	$1.3B
Net lev.	4.9x	5.7x	6.3x	6.9x	7.3x
EBITDA/int.	1.6x	1.4x	1.2x	1.2x	1.2x