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AMC Networks (AMC Global Media) · AMCX

PUBLIC DATA CASEHYPOTHETICAL INVESTMENT TERMSHOLD
Items
14
Complete
2
In progress
4
Not started
6
Issues identified
2
Unresolved HIGH priority
6
Status reflects work actually done on this case: historical financials were verified against the filings; other items are open questions an investment team would pursue. ANALYST PROJECTION notes are not facts.

Financial

ItemStatusPriorityNotes / findingsOpen questionSourceDate
Historical financials tied to filingsCompleteHighAll 88 numeric inputs verified against the FY2025 10-K / FY2024 10-K / Q2-2026 10-Q text; calculated AOI equals company-reported AOI in all five periods.—scripts/real_cases.py2026-10-07
Quality of earnings: AOI vs cashIssue IdentifiedHighAOI adds back share-based comp, cloud-computing amortization and JV AOI; AOI fell 46% in H1-2026 while CFO−capex stayed positive on program-rights timing.How much of LTM FCF of ~$190M is timing from program-rights amortization vs spend?10-Q Q2-2026, Non-GAAP reconciliation2026-10-07
Programming spend vs amortizationIn ProgressHighAmortization of program rights $846.8M vs net program-rights cash investment $815.2M in FY2025; the gap is a one-off cash benefit if content spend rises.What is the steady-state content cash need?10-K FY2025, Cash flow statement2026-10-07
Capex and working-capital run-rateCompleteLowCapex 1.3% of revenue; asset-light.—10-K FY20252026-10-07

Business

ItemStatusPriorityNotes / findingsOpen questionSourceDate
Linear subscriber and ad-revenue declineIn ProgressHighSubscription −2.9%, advertising −5.5%, content licensing −20.3% (H1-2026 vs H1-2025).Is the decline rate accelerating beyond the base case (−4.5%)?10-Q Q2-2026, MD&A2026-10-07
Streaming profitability and affiliate renewalsNot StartedMediumStreaming price increases are offsetting basic-subscriber losses.Which carriage agreements renew inside the hold period?10-Q Q2-20262026-10-07

Debt

ItemStatusPriorityNotes / findingsOpen questionSourceDate
Indenture review: priming and drop-down protectionsNot StartedHighFeb-2026 consent solicitation amended the 2032 indenture (restricted payments up to $50M; trademark transfers limited to non-exclusive licences).Can collateral be moved to unrestricted subsidiaries?10-Q Q2-2026, Note 92026-10-07
Maturity profile and refinancing planIn ProgressHigh2029 Secured Notes ($875M) were exchanged into additional 2032 secured notes in March 2026; $420M of unsecured/convertible notes remain due Feb-2029; cash $464M.Will the company pre-fund the Feb-2029 maturities from cash or refinance?10-Q Q2-2026, Note 92026-10-07
Covenant package after revolver terminationIssue IdentifiedHighRevolver and Term Loan A were terminated May 2026, so maintenance covenants no longer apply; liquidity is cash only.Do we require maintenance covenants / a minimum-liquidity test in new money?10-Q Q2-2026, Note 92026-10-07
Collateral and lien perfectionNot StartedMediumFirst-priority lien on substantially all assets of AMC Networks and guarantors.Which subsidiaries are non-guarantors (International)?10-K FY2025, Note 92026-10-07

Legal

ItemStatusPriorityNotes / findingsOpen questionSourceDate
Litigation / contingenciesNot StartedLowSee 10-K Item 3 and Note 14.Any claims ranking ahead of secured creditors?10-K FY20252026-10-07
Program-rights obligations and leases (claims in distress)Not StartedMedium$382M of program-rights obligations and $89M of leases at 2026-06-30 would be general claims.Priority of programming creditors vs secured notes?10-Q Q2-2026, Balance sheet2026-10-07

Commercial

ItemStatusPriorityNotes / findingsOpen questionSourceDate
Industry conditions and valuation multiplesIn ProgressMediumLinear TV network EV/AOI multiples compressed; model uses 4.0x–5.0x in distress.Transaction comps for cable-network portfolios?Analyst assumption2026-10-07
Macro sensitivity: advertising cycleNot StartedLowAdvertising is ~25% of revenue.—10-K FY20252026-10-07