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AMC Networks (AMC Global Media) · AMCX
PUBLIC DATA CASEHYPOTHETICAL INVESTMENT TERMSHOLDPUBLIC DATA CASE — Corporate credit — senior secured notes of a levered, declining linear-TV network. Historicals: PUBLIC FILING · forecasts: ANALYST PROJECTION · price, fees, hold: UNDERWRITING ASSUMPTION. HYPOTHETICAL INVESTMENT: not a real transaction and not a Fortress investment.
Owner of AMC, BBC America, IFC, SundanceTV and WE tv plus the AMC+ / Acorn / Shudder streaming services and AMC Studios. Linear affiliate and advertising revenue is in secular decline while streaming grows; the company refinanced most of its 2029 debt into 10.50% secured notes due 2032 in 2026.
Recommendation
HOLD
2 core test(s) failed
Credit score
59 / 100
Elevated
Base IRR
12.6%
vs hurdle 12.0%
Downside IRR
6.5%
performing
Severe recovery
34%
IRR -10.8%
Net leverage
4.1x
LTM Jun-26
EBITDA / interest
1.84x
LTM Jun-26
Overview
| Sector / industry | Media / Cable networks & streaming |
| Headquarters | New York, NY |
| Revenue (LTM Jun-26) | $2.2B |
| EBITDA (LTM Jun-26) | $313M |
| Total debt (face value) | $1.7B |
| Cash | $464M |
| Net debt | $1.3B |
| Asset / collateral base | $2.5B |
| Enterprise value (assumed multiple) | $1.7B |
Investment thesis UNDERWRITING ASSUMPTION
Hypothetical: buy $100M face of the public 10.50% Senior Secured Notes due 2032 at an assumed 95. The notes are first-lien on substantially all assets and now sit ahead of only $420M of unsecured/convertible debt, but AOI fell 46% in H1-2026, coverage is below 2x, there is no revolver, and the $1.3B of secured claims is covered only ~1.1x by a going-concern value at 4.5x LTM AOI (and about 0.6x at the Downside trough). The question is whether a ~12% yield compensates for thin collateral coverage if linear decline accelerates.
| Instrument | 10.50% Senior Secured Notes due 2032 |
| Face value / purchase price / cash investment | $100M / 95.0 / $95.0M UNDERWRITING ASSUMPTION |
| Current yield · yield to maturity | 11.1% · 11.7% |
Key protections
- 10.5% fixed coupon with a pull-to-par from an assumed 95 purchase price
- First-priority lien on substantially all assets; only $420M of debt ranks behind us
- Cash of $464M covers the Feb-2029 unsecured/convertible maturities
- Streaming price increases and cost actions could stabilise AOI
Key risks
- Linear subscriber, advertising and licensing revenue declining 3–20% YoY; AOI −46% in H1-2026
- Interest coverage 1.84x (AOI / interest) and falling; no revolver backstop
- Collateral is largely content library, receivables and brands — liquidation value is a fraction of book
- Priming / drop-down risk: indenture permits unrestricted-subsidiary investments up to specified baskets
Key catalysts
- Feb-2029 maturity of $420M unsecured/convertible notes
- Call protection steps down from 2028-07-15 (105.250% → par in 2030)
- H2-2026 content slate and affiliate renewals
Thesis vs actual performance (data-driven)
Entry 2026-02-11 · actuals: H1-2026 (10-Q filed 2026-07-30)Thesis statusTHESIS DETERIORATION
| Metric | Plan at entry | Actual (filings) | Gap | Status | Severity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY, YTD) | -4.5% | -5.7% | -1.2 pts | WATCH | — |
| EBITDA growth (YoY, YTD) | -15.0% | -46.2% | -31.2 pts | BELOW THESIS | HIGH |
| Net leverage (LTM, model basis) | ≤ 3.6x | 4.1x | +0.5x | BELOW THESIS | LOW |
| EBITDA / interest (LTM) | ≥ 2.0x | 1.84x | -0.16x | BELOW THESIS | LOW |
| Liquidity ($M) | ≥ 500 | 464 | -7% | WATCH | — |
| Covenants (base-case projection) | No breach | No breach | OK | — | |
| Maturity wall (base case) | No refinancing shortfall | No shortfall | OK | — | |
| Severe-case recovery | ≥ 70.0% | 34.1% | BELOW THESIS | MEDIUM |
Data-quality notes
- EBITDA = Adjusted Operating Income (AOI), the company's non-GAAP measure: revenue − technical & operating − SG&A + share-based compensation + cloud-computing amortization + majority-owned equity-investee AOI. Model-calculated AOI equals reported AOI in every period.
- LTM Jun-26 = FY2025 + H1-2026 − H1-2025 for every flow line (formula in Excel). Balance-sheet and debt are as reported at 2026-06-30.
- FCF = reported CFO − capex; 'ΔNWC & other' is the derived plug (program-rights timing, restructuring, interest income, taxes paid vs provision).
- Impairment and restructuring charges are shown as reported but excluded from EBITDA; they are captured in the cash plug rather than estimated.
- The 2029 Secured Notes were exchanged into additional 2032 Secured Notes (Feb–Mar 2026) and the revolver / Term Loan A terminated (May 2026): debt is therefore taken at 2026-06-30, not at the FY2025 10-K.
- Hypothetical purchase price of 95.0 is an underwriting assumption; no market price is available in the filings.
- Credit-agreement covenants (max net leverage 5.50x, min interest coverage 1.50x) are real but terminated; they are listed for reference and not tested. Tested covenants are hypothetical.
Sources & data lineage (4)
| Source | Document | Data type | Period | Accession | Doc date | Retrieved | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEC EDGAR | AMC Networks Inc. (now AMC Global Media Inc.) — Form 10-K, period ended 2025-12-31 | Annual report | 2025-12-31 | 0001514991-26-000011 | 2026-02-11 | 2026-10-07 | PUBLIC FILING |
| SEC EDGAR | AMC Networks Inc. — Form 10-K, period ended 2024-12-31 | Annual report | 2024-12-31 | 0001514991-25-000009 | 2025-02-14 | 2026-10-07 | PUBLIC FILING |
| SEC EDGAR | AMC Global Media Inc. — Form 10-Q, period ended 2026-06-30 | Quarterly report | 2026-06-30 | 0001514991-26-000089 | 2026-07-30 | 2026-10-07 | PUBLIC FILING |
| FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) | SOFR — Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3.90% on 2026-10-06) | Macro rate | — | — | 2026-10-06 | 2026-10-07 | PUBLIC FILING |