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Tidewater Office Partners · TWOP

DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONPASS

How one assumption propagates: statements → cash flow → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns

ANALYST PROJECTION

Stage	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
① Revenue growth (avg) → revenue (period 5)	-2.0% → $307M	-3.0% → $292M	-7.4% → $228M
② EBITDA margin (period 1 → 5) → trough EBITDA	57.5% → 58.3% → $179M	55.0% → 55.5% → $162M	51.5% → 52.5% → $120M
③ Cumulative FCF (5 periods)	$225M	$121M	($76M)
④ Rate shock → period-1 cash interest	+0bp → $109M	+150bp → $114M	+300bp → $119M
⑤ Peak net leverage · min EBITDA/interest	8.5x · 1.76x	9.8x · 1.53x	14.7x · 1.04x
⑥ Covenants: first breach	none	FY2027E	FY2026E
⑦ Refinancing tests (pass / fail)	0 / 3	0 / 3	0 / 3
⑧ Payment default	FY2026E	FY2026E	FY2026E
⑨ Recovery value → target-tranche recovery	$1.6B (liquidation) → 100%	$1.4B (liquidation) → 48%	$1.1B (liquidation) → 0%
⑩ IRR · MOIC	24.9% · 1.53x	-10.5% · 0.82x	-84.0% · 0.16x

Scenario probabilities: Base Case 55% · Downside 30% · Severe Downside 15% (analyst assumption). Edit any assumption in the lab below to watch every stage move.

Scenario assumptions

	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
Revenue growth (period 1 / period 5)	-2.0% / -2.0%	-6.6% / -2.0%	-19.8% / -2.0%
EBITDA margin (period 1 / period 5)	57.5% / 58.3%	55.0% / 55.5%	51.5% / 52.5%
Capex % revenue	12.0%	11.4%	9.6%
Other cash items % revenue (+ outflow)	0.0%	0.2%	0.6%
Net asset sales (period 1, $M)	$0M	$0M	$0M
Floating-rate shock	+0 bp	+150 bp	+300 bp
Refinancing rate	8.0%	10.5%	13.0%
Market access: max net leverage / min coverage	8.5x / 1.20x	5.5x / 1.80x	5.0x / 2.00x
Exit multiple / distressed multiple	9.0x / 6.5x	7.5x / 6.5x	6.0x / 6.5x
Exit price cap (non-default)	100	90	70
Asset value decline / liquidation recovery	0% / 80%	15% / 80%	35% / 80%

EBITDA ($M)

Free cash flow ($M)

Net debt / EBITDA

Scenario engine — change assumptions and watch them propagate

Start from:Edits flow through statements → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns.

Assumptions (edit)

	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue growth	%	%	%	%	%
EBITDA margin	%	%	%	%	%
Asset sales ($M)

Capex % rev%NWC % Δrev%Other cash items % rev%Floating-rate shock%Refinancing rate%Max refi net lev (x)Min refi coverage (x)Exit multiple (x)Exit price cap (%)Distressed multiple (x)Asset value decline%Liquidation recovery%

Result — Second-Priority Term Loan @ 72

Default?

Yes — FY2026E

Covenant breaches

Recovery

48%

IRR

-10.5%

MOIC

0.82x

Lines: Base EBITDA (blue) vs your custom case (orange), $M.

$M	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue	$318M	$307M	$304M	$298M	$292M
EBITDA	$175M	$166M	$166M	$164M	$162M
Cash interest	$114M	$109M	$107M	$104M	$104M
FCF	$25M	$22M	$24M	$25M	$24M
Cash	$0M	$0M	$0M	$25M	$50M
Total debt	$1.7B	$1.6B	$1.6B	$1.6B	$1.6B
Net lev.	9.5x	9.8x	9.7x	9.7x	9.6x
EBITDA/int.	1.5x	1.5x	1.6x	1.6x	1.6x