Tidewater Office Partners · TWOP
DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONPASSRecovery waterfall by scenario
ANALYST PROJECTIONRecovery value = MAX(going-concern value, liquidation value) + cash, less administrative costs, then distributed by seniority (strict absolute priority; equal ranks pari passu). Going concern = distressed EV/EBITDA multiple × EBITDA at the valuation event; liquidation = asset base × (1 − decline) × liquidation recovery. Valuation event = the payment-default period, or — if no default is modelled — a hypothetical default at the trough-EBITDA period (so protection is always measured). Specific liens are paid from their own collateral pool; any deficiency joins general creditors. Illustrative appraised / collateral value (DEMO)
Base Case — FY2026E (modelled payment default)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $1.6B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($65.6M) | |||||
| Mortgage / CMBS | 1 | $1.2B | $1.2B | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Second-Priority Term Loan | 2 | $357.5M | $357.5M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Unsecured Notes 4.5% | 3 | $139.0M | $50.1M | 36.0% | $88.9M | 64.0% |
| Total claims | $1.7B | $1.6B | $88.9M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||
Downside — FY2026E (modelled payment default)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $1.4B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($55.8M) | |||||
| Mortgage / CMBS | 1 | $1.2B | $1.2B | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Second-Priority Term Loan | 2 | $358.8M | $171.4M | 47.8% | $187.4M | 52.2% |
| Unsecured Notes 4.5% | 3 | $156.7M | $0.0M | 0.0% | $156.7M | 100.0% |
| Total claims | $1.7B | $1.3B | $344.1M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||
Severe Downside — FY2026E (modelled payment default)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $1.1B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($42.6M) | |||||
| Mortgage / CMBS | 1 | $1.2B | $1.0B | 87.7% | $143.5M | 12.3% |
| Second-Priority Term Loan | 2 | $360.1M | $0.0M | 0.0% | $360.1M | 100.0% |
| Unsecured Notes 4.5% | 3 | $185.2M | $0.0M | 0.0% | $185.2M | 100.0% |
| Total claims | $1.7B | $1.0B | $688.8M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||
Recovery lab — change valuation assumptions and watch the waterfall re-allocate
Going-concern $780.0M vs liquidation $1.1B → recovery value = MAX = $1.1B (used: liquidation, $1.1B). Claims = current face value + 3 months accrued interest.
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $1.1B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($42.6M) | |||||
| Mortgage / CMBS | 1 | $1.2B | $1.0B | 87.7% | $143.5M | 12.3% |
| Second-Priority Term Loan | 2 | $357.5M | $0.0M | 0.0% | $357.5M | 100.0% |
| Unsecured Notes 4.5% | 3 | $252.8M | $0.0M | 0.0% | $252.8M | 100.0% |
| Total claims | $1.8B | $1.0B | $753.8M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||