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Summit Chemical · SMCH
DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONPASSCredit metrics — FY2025A
DEMO DATA inputs · CALCULATED metrics| Metric | Value | Formula | Raw inputs used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total debt | $1.8B | Σ tranche principal (face value) | debt=1750.0 |
| Net debt | $1.6B | Total debt − cash | debt=1750.0 · cash=120.0 |
| Gross leverage (Debt / EBITDA) | 4.49x | Total debt ÷ EBITDA | debt=1750.0 · ebitda=390.0 |
| Secured leverage | 2.56x | Secured debt ÷ EBITDA | secured=1000.0 · ebitda=390.0 |
| Net leverage | 4.18x | Net debt ÷ EBITDA | netDebt=1630.0 · ebitda=390.0 |
| Interest coverage (EBIT / interest) | 2.12x | EBIT ÷ interest expense | ebit=260.0 · interest=122.9 |
| EBITDA / interest | 3.17x | EBITDA ÷ interest expense | ebitda=390.0 · interest=122.9 |
| FCF / debt | 5.6% | Free cash flow ÷ total debt | fcf=97.3 · debt=1750.0 |
| Debt service coverage | 1.61x | (EBITDA − capex − taxes) ÷ (interest + mandatory amortization) | ebitda=390.0 · capex=143.0 · taxes=34.3 · interest=122.9 · amort=9.0 |
| Cash conversion | 63.3% | (EBITDA − capex) ÷ EBITDA | ebitda=390.0 · capex=143.0 |
| Liquidity ratio | 3.18x | (Cash + undrawn revolver) ÷ (debt due next period + amortization + interest) | liquidity=420.0 · stObl=131.9 |
| Current ratio | 1.75x | Current assets ÷ (current liabilities ex-debt + debt due next period) | currentAssets=980.0 · curLiab=560.0 |
| Short-term debt / liquidity | 0.00x | Debt due next period ÷ (cash + undrawn revolver) | std=0.00 · liquidity=420.0 |
Credit scorecard — deterministic, auditable
Score 62.3 / 100 · Moderate| Factor | Measure | Value | Best | Worst | Points | Max | Proj. base | Proj. downside | Proj. severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leverage | Net debt / LTM EBITDA | 4.18 | 2 | 7 | 8.5 | 15 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 0.0 |
| Coverage | LTM EBITDA / interest expense | 3.17 | 5 | 1 | 8.1 | 15 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 0.1 |
| Liquidity | Cash + undrawn revolver vs next-period obligations | 3.18 | 2 | 0.5 | 10.0 | 10 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Free cash flow | LTM FCF / total debt | 0.06 | 0.12 | -0.02 | 5.4 | 10 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| Maturity risk | Share of debt maturing within 3 periods | 1.00 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Margin stability | Std-dev of annual EBITDA margin | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 10.0 | 10 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Revenue stability | Std-dev of annual revenue growth | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 6.2 | 8 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| Asset coverage | Asset base / total debt | 1.71 | 2 | 0.6 | 9.6 | 12 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 |
| Industry risk | Sector factor (config.ts) | 0.45 | 1 | 0 | 4.5 | 10 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Total | 62.3 | 100 | 63.3 | 52.1 | 41.5 | ||||
Why did the score change?
FY2024A (same capital structure) → FY2025A: 64.9 → 62.3
- ▼ Net leverage increased from 4.0x to 4.2x (-0.6 pts, negative)
- ▼ Interest coverage fell from 3.5x to 3.2x (-1.3 pts, negative)
- • Liquidity ratio broadly stable at 3.2x
- ▼ FCF / debt fell from 6.6% to 5.6% (-0.7 pts, negative)
- • Near-term maturity share unchanged at 100%
- • Margin volatility unchanged at 0.8 pts
- • Revenue volatility unchanged at 5.7 pts
- • Asset coverage unchanged at 1.71x
- • Industry risk factor unchanged at 0.45
Each factor earns its weight linearly between a “worst” (0 pts) and “best” (full pts) threshold; weights and thresholds live in src/lib/config.ts. “Proj.” columns re-score the first projected period of each scenario. Risk bands: ≥75 Low · ≥60 Moderate · ≥45 Elevated · else High.
Covenant analysis
Metrics are computed from the projection by the scenario engine — no covenant output is typed in. Headroom = distance to the covenant (positive = cushion). Hypothetical covenants are UNDERWRITING ASSUMPTION; disclosed covenants are tested on a model-basis proxy.
Base Case: no breachDownside: 3 failed tests; first breach FY2026ESevere Downside: 5 failed tests; first breach FY2026E
Maximum net leverage UNDERWRITING ASSUMPTION HYPOTHETICAL — underwriting assumption
| FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | FY2030E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current metric | 5.52x | 6.34x | 5.90x | 5.43x | 4.96x |
| Covenant | ≤ 5.50x | ≤ 5.50x | ≤ 5.50x | ≤ 5.50x | ≤ 5.50x |
| Headroom | −0.02x (-0%) | −0.84x (-15%) | −0.40x (-7%) | 0.07x (1%) | 0.54x (10%) |
| Status | BREACH | BREACH | BREACH | PASS | PASS |
Projected credit metrics by scenario
ANALYST PROJECTION| Scenario | Metric | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | FY2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | Net debt / EBITDA | 3.8x | 3.4x | 3.0x | 2.7x | 2.3x |
| EBITDA / cash interest | 3.3x | 3.7x | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.2x | |
| DSCR | 1.7x | 1.8x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.1x | |
| Liquidity ($M) | $495M | $586M | $400M | $511M | $634M | |
| Downside | Net debt / EBITDA | 5.5x | 6.3x | 5.9x | 5.4x | 5.0x |
| EBITDA / cash interest | 2.1x | 2.0x | 2.2x | 2.4x | 2.6x | |
| DSCR | 1.1x | 0.9x | 1.0x | 1.2x | 1.3x | |
| Liquidity ($M) | $454M | $454M | $400M | $411M | $435M | |
| Severe Downside | Net debt / EBITDA | 10.5x | 18.5x | 16.5x | 14.5x | 12.7x |
| EBITDA / cash interest | 1.0x | 0.7x | 0.8x | 1.0x | 1.2x | |
| DSCR | 0.4x | 0.1x | 0.3x | 0.4x | 0.6x | |
| Liquidity ($M) | $405M | $400M | $400M | $400M | $400M |
Red = payment default reached in or before that period. After a default the model keeps rolling mechanically for illustration; the recovery waterfall is struck at the default period.
Sources & data lineage (3)
| Source | Document | Data type | Period | Accession | Doc date | Retrieved | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CreditIQ demo dataset | Summit Chemical — illustrative financial statements FY2022–FY2025 | Income statement / cash flow | FY2022–FY2025 | — | 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-31 | DEMO DATA |
| CreditIQ demo dataset | Summit Chemical — illustrative capital structure & covenants | Debt schedule | As of 2026-03-31 | — | 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-31 | DEMO DATA |
| CreditIQ demo dataset | Illustrative indicative bid marks (% of par) | Market price | 2026-03-31 | — | 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-31 | DEMO DATA |