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Summit Chemical · SMCH

DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONPASS

How one assumption propagates: statements → cash flow → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns

ANALYST PROJECTION

Stage	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
① Revenue growth (avg) → revenue (period 5)	3.0% → $3.0B	-1.2% → $2.4B	-7.2% → $1.7B
② EBITDA margin (period 1 → 5) → trough EBITDA	15.0% → 15.8% → $402M	12.0% → 12.6% → $249M	7.8% → 9.0% → $94M
③ Cumulative FCF (5 periods)	$548M	$110M	($364M)
④ Rate shock → period-1 cash interest	+0bp → $123M	+150bp → $138M	+300bp → $153M
⑤ Peak net leverage · min EBITDA/interest	3.8x · 3.27x	6.3x · 1.97x	18.5x · 0.67x
⑥ Covenants: first breach	none	FY2026E	FY2026E
⑦ Refinancing tests (pass / fail)	3 / 0	0 / 3	0 / 3
⑧ Payment default	none	FY2028E	FY2027E
⑨ Recovery value → target-tranche recovery	$2.1B (going concern) → 100%	$1.4B (liquidation) → 66%	$1.1B (liquidation) → 16%
⑩ IRR · MOIC	10.1% · 1.21x	-2.5% · 0.91x	-37.8% · 0.30x

Scenario probabilities: Base Case 55% · Downside 30% · Severe Downside 15% (analyst assumption). Edit any assumption in the lab below to watch every stage move.

Scenario assumptions

	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
Revenue growth (period 1 / period 5)	3.0% / 3.0%	-7.8% / 2.0%	-23.4% / 2.0%
EBITDA margin (period 1 / period 5)	15.0% / 15.8%	12.0% / 12.6%	7.8% / 9.0%
Capex % revenue	5.5%	5.2%	4.4%
Other cash items % revenue (+ outflow)	0.0%	0.2%	0.6%
Net asset sales (period 1, $M)	$0M	$0M	$0M
Floating-rate shock	+0 bp	+150 bp	+300 bp
Refinancing rate	8.5%	11.0%	13.5%
Market access: max net leverage / min coverage	8.5x / 1.20x	5.5x / 1.80x	5.0x / 2.00x
Exit multiple / distressed multiple	7.0x / 5.0x	5.5x / 5.0x	4.0x / 5.0x
Exit price cap (non-default)	100	90	70
Asset value decline / liquidation recovery	0% / 55%	15% / 55%	35% / 55%

EBITDA ($M)

Free cash flow ($M)

Net debt / EBITDA

Scenario engine — change assumptions and watch them propagate

Start from:Edits flow through statements → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns.

Assumptions (edit)

	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue growth	%	%	%	%	%
EBITDA margin	%	%	%	%	%
Asset sales ($M)

Capex % rev%NWC % Δrev%Other cash items % rev%Floating-rate shock%Refinancing rate%Max refi net lev (x)Min refi coverage (x)Exit multiple (x)Exit price cap (%)Distressed multiple (x)Asset value decline%Liquidation recovery%

Result — Senior Unsecured Notes 5.75% @ 92

Default?

Yes — FY2028E

Covenant breaches

Recovery

66%

IRR

-2.5%

MOIC

0.91x

Lines: Base EBITDA (blue) vs your custom case (orange), $M.

$M	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue	$2.4B	$2.3B	$2.3B	$2.4B	$2.4B
EBITDA	$288M	$249M	$267M	$286M	$307M
Cash interest	$138M	$126M	$123M	$118M	$117M
FCF	$43M	$10M	$5M	$20M	$33M
Cash	$54M	$54M	$0M	$11M	$35M
Total debt	$1.6B	$1.6B	$1.6B	$1.6B	$1.6B
Net lev.	5.5x	6.3x	5.9x	5.4x	5.0x
EBITDA/int.	2.1x	2.0x	2.2x	2.4x	2.6x