Summit Chemical · SMCH
DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONPASSRecovery waterfall by scenario
ANALYST PROJECTIONRecovery value = MAX(going-concern value, liquidation value) + cash, less administrative costs, then distributed by seniority (strict absolute priority; equal ranks pari passu). Going concern = distressed EV/EBITDA multiple × EBITDA at the valuation event; liquidation = asset base × (1 − decline) × liquidation recovery. Valuation event = the payment-default period, or — if no default is modelled — a hypothetical default at the trough-EBITDA period (so protection is always measured). Specific liens are paid from their own collateral pool; any deficiency joins general creditors. Illustrative appraised / collateral value (DEMO)
Base Case — FY2026E (hypothetical default at trough EBITDA; no default modelled)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $2.1B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($84.1M) | |||||
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $909.0M | $909.0M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 5.75% | 3 | $760.8M | $760.8M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Total claims | $1.7B | $1.7B | $0.0M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $349.1M | In the money | ||||
Downside — FY2028E (modelled payment default)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $1.4B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($56.1M) | |||||
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $841.9M | $841.9M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 5.75% | 3 | $760.8M | $504.5M | 66.3% | $256.3M | 33.7% |
| Total claims | $1.6B | $1.3B | $256.3M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||
Severe Downside — FY2027E (modelled payment default)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $1.1B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($42.9M) | |||||
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $905.9M | $905.9M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 5.75% | 3 | $760.8M | $123.7M | 16.3% | $637.1M | 83.7% |
| Total claims | $1.7B | $1.0B | $637.1M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||
Recovery lab — change valuation assumptions and watch the waterfall re-allocate
Going-concern $470.0M vs liquidation $1.1B → recovery value = MAX = $1.1B (used: liquidation, $1.1B). Claims = current face value + 3 months accrued interest.
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $1.1B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($42.9M) | |||||
| Revolver | 1 | $101.7M | $101.7M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $918.2M | $918.2M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 5.75% | 3 | $760.8M | $9.6M | 1.3% | $751.1M | 98.7% |
| Total claims | $1.8B | $1.0B | $751.1M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | ||||