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Meridian Industrial REIT · MIR

DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLD

How one assumption propagates: statements → cash flow → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns

ANALYST PROJECTION

Stage	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
① Revenue growth (avg) → revenue (period 5)	4.0% → $633M	-0.5% → $506M	-5.1% → $394M
② EBITDA margin (period 1 → 5) → trough EBITDA	70.0% → 70.8% → $379M	67.9% → 68.3% → $319M	64.9% → 65.8% → $245M
③ Cumulative FCF (5 periods)	$1.2B	$868M	$594M
④ Rate shock → period-1 cash interest	+0bp → $89M	+150bp → $97M	+300bp → $106M
⑤ Peak net leverage · min EBITDA/interest	3.9x · 4.25x	4.6x · 3.42x	5.9x · 2.65x
⑥ Covenants: first breach	none	none	none
⑦ Refinancing tests (pass / fail)	2 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1
⑧ Payment default	none	none	none
⑨ Recovery value → target-tranche recovery	$5.4B (going concern) → 100%	$4.7B (going concern) → 100%	$3.7B (going concern) → 100%
⑩ IRR · MOIC	8.4% · 1.26x	5.0% · 1.15x	-2.7% · 0.92x

Scenario probabilities: Base Case 55% · Downside 30% · Severe Downside 15% (analyst assumption). Edit any assumption in the lab below to watch every stage move.

Scenario assumptions

	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
Revenue growth (period 1 / period 5)	4.0% / 4.0%	-5.7% / 2.0%	-17.1% / 2.0%
EBITDA margin (period 1 / period 5)	70.0% / 70.8%	67.9% / 68.3%	64.9% / 65.8%
Capex % revenue	10.0%	9.5%	8.0%
Other cash items % revenue (+ outflow)	0.0%	0.2%	0.6%
Net asset sales (period 1, $M)	$0M	$0M	$0M
Floating-rate shock	+0 bp	+150 bp	+300 bp
Refinancing rate	6.2%	8.7%	11.2%
Market access: max net leverage / min coverage	8.5x / 1.20x	5.5x / 1.80x	5.0x / 2.00x
Exit multiple / distressed multiple	17.0x / 14.0x	15.5x / 14.0x	14.0x / 14.0x
Exit price cap (non-default)	100	90	70
Asset value decline / liquidation recovery	0% / 85%	15% / 85%	35% / 85%

EBITDA ($M)

Free cash flow ($M)

Net debt / EBITDA

Scenario engine — change assumptions and watch them propagate

Start from:Edits flow through statements → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns.

Assumptions (edit)

	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue growth	%	%	%	%	%
EBITDA margin	%	%	%	%	%
Asset sales ($M)

Capex % rev%NWC % Δrev%Other cash items % rev%Floating-rate shock%Refinancing rate%Max refi net lev (x)Min refi coverage (x)Exit multiple (x)Exit price cap (%)Distressed multiple (x)Asset value decline%Liquidation recovery%

Result — Senior Unsecured Notes 3.90% @ 88

Default?

Covenant breaches

Recovery

100%

IRR

5.0%

MOIC

1.15x

Lines: Base EBITDA (blue) vs your custom case (orange), $M.

$M	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue	$490M	$476M	$486M	$496M	$506M
EBITDA	$333M	$319M	$328M	$336M	$345M
Cash interest	$97M	$85M	$84M	$84M	$84M
FCF	$167M	$166M	$172M	$178M	$185M
Cash	$77M	$243M	$415M	$593M	$378M
Total debt	$1.6B	$1.6B	$1.6B	$1.6B	$1.2B
Net lev.	4.6x	4.3x	3.6x	3.0x	2.4x
EBITDA/int.	3.4x	3.8x	3.9x	4.0x	4.1x