Meridian Industrial REIT · MIR
DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLDRecovery waterfall by scenario
ANALYST PROJECTIONRecovery value = MAX(going-concern value, liquidation value) + cash, less administrative costs, then distributed by seniority (strict absolute priority; equal ranks pari passu). Going concern = distressed EV/EBITDA multiple × EBITDA at the valuation event; liquidation = asset base × (1 − decline) × liquidation recovery. Valuation event = the payment-default period, or — if no default is modelled — a hypothetical default at the trough-EBITDA period (so protection is always measured). Specific liens are paid from their own collateral pool; any deficiency joins general creditors. Illustrative appraised / collateral value (DEMO)
Base Case — FY2026E (hypothetical default at trough EBITDA; no default modelled)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $5.4B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($216.5M) | |||||
| Unsecured Term Loan | 1 | $406.6M | $406.6M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 3.90% | 1 | $706.8M | $706.8M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 5.20% | 1 | $506.5M | $506.5M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Total claims | $1.6B | $1.6B | $0.0M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $3.6B | In the money | ||||
Downside — FY2027E (hypothetical default at trough EBITDA; no default modelled)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $4.7B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($188.5M) | |||||
| Unsecured Term Loan | 1 | $407.9M | $407.9M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 3.90% | 1 | $706.8M | $706.8M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 5.20% | 1 | $506.5M | $506.5M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Total claims | $1.6B | $1.6B | $0.0M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $2.9B | In the money | ||||
Severe Downside — FY2028E (hypothetical default at trough EBITDA; no default modelled)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $3.7B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($147.9M) | |||||
| Unsecured Term Loan | 1 | $409.1M | $409.1M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 3.90% | 1 | $706.8M | $706.8M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 5.20% | 1 | $506.5M | $506.5M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Total claims | $1.6B | $1.6B | $0.0M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $1.9B | In the money | ||||
Recovery lab — change valuation assumptions and watch the waterfall re-allocate
Going-concern $3.4B vs liquidation $3.4B → recovery value = MAX = $3.4B (used: going concern, $3.4B). Claims = current face value + 3 months accrued interest.
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $3.4B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($137.2M) | |||||
| Revolver | 1 | $152.4M | $152.4M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Unsecured Term Loan | 1 | $406.6M | $406.6M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 3.90% | 1 | $706.8M | $706.8M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Unsecured Notes 5.20% | 1 | $506.5M | $506.5M | 100.0% | ($0.0M) | -0.0% |
| Total claims | $1.8B | $1.8B | ($0.0M) | |||
| Equity (residual) | $1.5B | In the money | ||||