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Cloudspire Technologies · CSPR

DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLD

How one assumption propagates: statements → cash flow → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns

ANALYST PROJECTION

Stage	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
① Revenue growth (avg) → revenue (period 5)	14.0% → $924M	0.8% → $496M	-4.2% → $383M
② EBITDA margin (period 1 → 5) → trough EBITDA	20.0% → 20.8% → $109M	18.3% → 18.6% → $78M	15.8% → 16.5% → $54M
③ Cumulative FCF (5 periods)	$203M	($24M)	($171M)
④ Rate shock → period-1 cash interest	+0bp → $66M	+150bp → $75M	+300bp → $85M
⑤ Peak net leverage · min EBITDA/interest	5.3x · 1.67x	7.9x · 1.07x	12.5x · 0.66x
⑥ Covenants: first breach	none	none	FY2026E
⑦ Refinancing tests (pass / fail)	2 / 0	0 / 2	0 / 2
⑧ Payment default	none	FY2028E	FY2027E
⑨ Recovery value → target-tranche recovery	$827M (going concern) → 100%	$598M (going concern) → 90%	$381M (going concern) → 56%
⑩ IRR · MOIC	13.5% · 1.42x	9.9% · 1.38x	-3.6% · 0.91x

Scenario probabilities: Base Case 55% · Downside 30% · Severe Downside 15% (analyst assumption). Edit any assumption in the lab below to watch every stage move.

Scenario assumptions

	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
Revenue growth (period 1 / period 5)	14.0% / 14.0%	-4.8% / 2.0%	-14.4% / 2.0%
EBITDA margin (period 1 / period 5)	20.0% / 20.8%	18.3% / 18.6%	15.8% / 16.5%
Capex % revenue	4.0%	3.8%	3.2%
Other cash items % revenue (+ outflow)	0.0%	0.2%	0.6%
Net asset sales (period 1, $M)	$0M	$0M	$0M
Floating-rate shock	+0 bp	+150 bp	+300 bp
Refinancing rate	9.5%	12.0%	14.5%
Market access: max net leverage / min coverage	8.5x / 1.20x	5.5x / 1.80x	5.0x / 2.00x
Exit multiple / distressed multiple	11.0x / 7.0x	9.5x / 7.0x	8.0x / 7.0x
Exit price cap (non-default)	100	90	70
Asset value decline / liquidation recovery	0% / 25%	15% / 25%	35% / 25%

EBITDA ($M)

Free cash flow ($M)

Net debt / EBITDA

Scenario engine — change assumptions and watch them propagate

Start from:Edits flow through statements → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns.

Assumptions (edit)

	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue growth	%	%	%	%	%
EBITDA margin	%	%	%	%	%
Asset sales ($M)

Capex % rev%NWC % Δrev%Other cash items % rev%Floating-rate shock%Refinancing rate%Max refi net lev (x)Min refi coverage (x)Exit multiple (x)Exit price cap (%)Distressed multiple (x)Asset value decline%Liquidation recovery%

Result — First-Lien Term Loan @ 91

Default?

Yes — FY2028E

Covenant breaches

Recovery

90%

IRR

9.9%

MOIC

1.38x

Lines: Base EBITDA (blue) vs your custom case (orange), $M.

$M	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue	$457M	$446M	$477M	$487M	$496M
EBITDA	$83M	$78M	$85M	$89M	$92M
Cash interest	$75M	$73M	$71M	$69M	$68M
FCF	($8M)	($12M)	($7M)	($1M)	$3M
Cash	$41M	$23M	$0M	($7M)	($10M)
Total debt	$644M	$637M	$622M	$615M	$609M
Net lev.	7.2x	7.9x	7.3x	7.0x	6.7x
EBITDA/int.	1.1x	1.1x	1.2x	1.3x	1.4x