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Cloudspire Technologies · CSPR

DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLD

Recovery waterfall by scenario

ANALYST PROJECTION

Recovery value = MAX(going-concern value, liquidation value) + cash, less administrative costs, then distributed by seniority (strict absolute priority; equal ranks pari passu). Going concern = distressed EV/EBITDA multiple × EBITDA at the valuation event; liquidation = asset base × (1 − decline) × liquidation recovery. Valuation event = the payment-default period, or — if no default is modelled — a hypothetical default at the trough-EBITDA period (so protection is always measured). Specific liens are paid from their own collateral pool; any deficiency joins general creditors. Illustrative appraised / collateral value (DEMO)

Base Case — FY2026E (hypothetical default at trough EBITDA; no default modelled)

Going concern

$766M

Liquidation

$125M

Recovery value = MAX (+ cash $61M)

$827M · going concern

Target tranche · LGD

100% recovery · 0% loss

Claim (by seniority)	Rank	Claim	Recovery	Recovery %	Loss	Loss %
Recovery value			$827.0M
Less: administrative / DIP costs			($33.1M)
First-Lien Term Loan	1	$659.7M	$659.7M	100.0%	$0.0M	0.0%
Total claims		$659.7M	$659.7M		$0.0M
Equity (residual)			$134.2M	In the money

Downside — FY2028E (modelled payment default)

Going concern

$598M

Liquidation

$106M

Recovery value = MAX (+ cash $0M)

$598M · going concern

Target tranche · LGD

90% recovery · 10% loss

Claim (by seniority)	Rank	Claim	Recovery	Recovery %	Loss	Loss %
Recovery value			$597.9M
Less: administrative / DIP costs			($23.9M)
First-Lien Term Loan	1	$639.2M	$574.0M	89.8%	$65.2M	10.2%
Total claims		$639.2M	$574.0M		$65.2M
Equity (residual)			$0.0M	Wiped out

Severe Downside — FY2027E (modelled payment default)

Going concern

$381M

Liquidation

$81M

Recovery value = MAX (+ cash $0M)

$381M · going concern

Target tranche · LGD

56% recovery · 44% loss

Claim (by seniority)	Rank	Claim	Recovery	Recovery %	Loss	Loss %
Recovery value			$381.0M
Less: administrative / DIP costs			($15.2M)
First-Lien Term Loan	1	$657.5M	$365.8M	55.6%	$291.7M	44.4%
Total claims		$657.5M	$365.8M		$291.7M
Equity (residual)			$0.0M	Wiped out

Recovery lab — change valuation assumptions and watch the waterfall re-allocate

Distressed EBITDA ($M)
Distressed multiple (x)
Asset base decline %
Liquidation recovery %
Admin costs %
Override value ($M)

Going-concern $378.0M vs liquidation $81.3M → recovery value = MAX = $378.0M (used: going concern, $378.0M). Claims = current face value + 3 months accrued interest.

Claim (by seniority)	Rank	Claim	Recovery	Recovery %	Loss	Loss %
Recovery value			$378.0M
Less: administrative / DIP costs			($15.1M)
First-Lien Term Loan	1	$666.4M	$362.9M	54.5%	$303.5M	45.5%
Total claims		$666.4M	$362.9M		$303.5M
Equity (residual)			$0.0M	Wiped out