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Ridgeline Infrastructure Services · RDGL

DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLD

How one assumption propagates: statements → cash flow → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns

ANALYST PROJECTION

Stage	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
① Revenue growth (avg) → revenue (period 5)	4.0% → $2.6B	-0.3% → $2.1B	-4.5% → $1.6B
② EBITDA margin (period 1 → 5) → trough EBITDA	18.0% → 18.8% → $393M	16.1% → 16.5% → $299M	13.5% → 14.2% → $195M
③ Cumulative FCF (5 periods)	$840M	$466M	$154M
④ Rate shock → period-1 cash interest	+0bp → $109M	+150bp → $122M	+300bp → $136M
⑤ Peak net leverage · min EBITDA/interest	3.4x · 3.60x	4.4x · 2.63x	7.2x · 1.56x
⑥ Covenants: first breach	none	none	FY2026E
⑦ Refinancing tests (pass / fail)	2 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 2
⑧ Payment default	none	none	FY2030E
⑨ Recovery value → target-tranche recovery	$2.7B (going concern) → 100%	$2.1B (going concern) → 100%	$1.5B (going concern) → 100%
⑩ IRR · MOIC	8.0% · 1.24x	4.7% · 1.14x	6.5% · 1.39x

Scenario probabilities: Base Case 55% · Downside 30% · Severe Downside 15% (analyst assumption). Edit any assumption in the lab below to watch every stage move.

Scenario assumptions

	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
Revenue growth (period 1 / period 5)	4.0% / 4.0%	-5.1% / 2.0%	-15.3% / 2.0%
EBITDA margin (period 1 / period 5)	18.0% / 18.8%	16.1% / 16.5%	13.5% / 14.2%
Capex % revenue	4.0%	3.8%	3.2%
Other cash items % revenue (+ outflow)	0.0%	0.2%	0.6%
Net asset sales (period 1, $M)	$0M	$0M	$0M
Floating-rate shock	+0 bp	+150 bp	+300 bp
Refinancing rate	7.5%	10.0%	12.5%
Market access: max net leverage / min coverage	8.5x / 1.20x	5.5x / 1.80x	5.0x / 2.00x
Exit multiple / distressed multiple	11.0x / 6.5x	9.5x / 6.5x	8.0x / 6.5x
Exit price cap (non-default)	100	90	70
Asset value decline / liquidation recovery	0% / 50%	15% / 50%	35% / 50%

EBITDA ($M)

Free cash flow ($M)

Net debt / EBITDA

Scenario engine — change assumptions and watch them propagate

Start from:Edits flow through statements → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns.

Assumptions (edit)

	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue growth	%	%	%	%	%
EBITDA margin	%	%	%	%	%
Asset sales ($M)

Capex % rev%NWC % Δrev%Other cash items % rev%Floating-rate shock%Refinancing rate%Max refi net lev (x)Min refi coverage (x)Exit multiple (x)Exit price cap (%)Distressed multiple (x)Asset value decline%Liquidation recovery%

Result — Senior Notes 6.25% @ 95

Default?

Covenant breaches

Recovery

100%

IRR

4.7%

MOIC

1.14x

Lines: Base EBITDA (blue) vs your custom case (orange), $M.

$M	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue	$2.0B	$1.9B	$2.0B	$2.0B	$2.1B
EBITDA	$321M	$299M	$312M	$326M	$340M
Cash interest	$122M	$113M	$110M	$110M	$109M
FCF	$98M	$84M	$85M	$95M	$105M
Cash	$100M	$175M	$253M	$340M	$0M
Total debt	$1.5B	$1.5B	$1.5B	$1.5B	$1.0B
Net lev.	4.3x	4.4x	3.9x	3.5x	3.0x
EBITDA/int.	2.6x	2.6x	2.8x	3.0x	3.1x