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Halcyon Medical Devices · HLCN

DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLD

How one assumption propagates: statements → cash flow → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns

ANALYST PROJECTION

Stage	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
① Revenue growth (avg) → revenue (period 5)	5.0% → $1.8B	0.0% → $1.4B	-3.6% → $1.2B
② EBITDA margin (period 1 → 5) → trough EBITDA	24.0% → 24.8% → $353M	22.5% → 22.8% → $288M	20.4% → 21.0% → $218M
③ Cumulative FCF (5 periods)	$1.0B	$730M	$518M
④ Rate shock → period-1 cash interest	+0bp → $59M	+150bp → $65M	+300bp → $71M
⑤ Peak net leverage · min EBITDA/interest	1.4x · 5.97x	1.8x · 4.51x	2.2x · 3.13x
⑥ Covenants: first breach	none	none	none
⑦ Refinancing tests (pass / fail)	2 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 0
⑧ Payment default	none	none	none
⑨ Recovery value → target-tranche recovery	$3.2B (going concern) → 100%	$2.8B (going concern) → 100%	$2.2B (going concern) → 100%
⑩ IRR · MOIC	7.1% · 1.21x	3.8% · 1.11x	-3.5% · 0.90x

Scenario probabilities: Base Case 55% · Downside 30% · Severe Downside 15% (analyst assumption). Edit any assumption in the lab below to watch every stage move.

Scenario assumptions

	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
Revenue growth (period 1 / period 5)	5.0% / 5.0%	-4.2% / 2.0%	-12.6% / 2.0%
EBITDA margin (period 1 / period 5)	24.0% / 24.8%	22.5% / 22.8%	20.4% / 21.0%
Capex % revenue	4.0%	3.8%	3.2%
Other cash items % revenue (+ outflow)	0.0%	0.2%	0.6%
Net asset sales (period 1, $M)	$0M	$0M	$0M
Floating-rate shock	+0 bp	+150 bp	+300 bp
Refinancing rate	7.0%	9.5%	12.0%
Market access: max net leverage / min coverage	8.5x / 1.20x	5.5x / 1.80x	5.0x / 2.00x
Exit multiple / distressed multiple	13.0x / 8.0x	11.5x / 8.0x	10.0x / 8.0x
Exit price cap (non-default)	100	90	70
Asset value decline / liquidation recovery	0% / 45%	15% / 45%	35% / 45%

EBITDA ($M)

Free cash flow ($M)

Net debt / EBITDA

Scenario engine — change assumptions and watch them propagate

Start from:Edits flow through statements → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns.

Assumptions (edit)

	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue growth	%	%	%	%	%
EBITDA margin	%	%	%	%	%
Asset sales ($M)

Capex % rev%NWC % Δrev%Other cash items % rev%Floating-rate shock%Refinancing rate%Max refi net lev (x)Min refi coverage (x)Exit multiple (x)Exit price cap (%)Distressed multiple (x)Asset value decline%Liquidation recovery%

Result — Senior Notes 5.90% @ 96.5

Default?

Covenant breaches

Recovery

100%

IRR

3.8%

MOIC

1.11x

Lines: Base EBITDA (blue) vs your custom case (orange), $M.

$M	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue	$1.3B	$1.3B	$1.3B	$1.4B	$1.4B
EBITDA	$302M	$288M	$299M	$309M	$319M
Cash interest	$65M	$64M	$62M	$62M	$30M
FCF	$146M	$133M	$135M	$142M	$174M
Cash	$362M	$491M	$622M	$377M	$550M
Total debt	$896M	$892M	$888M	$500M	$500M
Net lev.	1.8x	1.4x	0.9x	0.4x	-0.2x
EBITDA/int.	4.6x	4.5x	4.8x	5.0x	10.8x