Halcyon Medical Devices · HLCN
DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLDRecovery waterfall by scenario
ANALYST PROJECTIONRecovery value = MAX(going-concern value, liquidation value) + cash, less administrative costs, then distributed by seniority (strict absolute priority; equal ranks pari passu). Going concern = distressed EV/EBITDA multiple × EBITDA at the valuation event; liquidation = asset base × (1 − decline) × liquidation recovery. Valuation event = the payment-default period, or — if no default is modelled — a hypothetical default at the trough-EBITDA period (so protection is always measured). Specific liens are paid from their own collateral pool; any deficiency joins general creditors. Illustrative appraised / collateral value (DEMO)
Base Case — FY2026E (hypothetical default at trough EBITDA; no default modelled)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $3.2B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($128.3M) | |||||
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $403.3M | $403.3M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Notes 5.90% | 3 | $507.4M | $507.4M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Total claims | $910.7M | $910.7M | $0.0M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $2.2B | In the money | ||||
Downside — FY2027E (hypothetical default at trough EBITDA; no default modelled)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $2.8B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($111.7M) | |||||
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $400.5M | $400.5M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Notes 5.90% | 3 | $507.4M | $507.4M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Total claims | $907.9M | $907.9M | $0.0M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $1.8B | In the money | ||||
Severe Downside — FY2027E (hypothetical default at trough EBITDA; no default modelled)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $2.2B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($86.9M) | |||||
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $401.9M | $401.9M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Notes 5.90% | 3 | $507.4M | $507.4M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Total claims | $909.3M | $909.3M | $0.0M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $1.2B | In the money | ||||
Recovery lab — change valuation assumptions and watch the waterfall re-allocate
Going-concern $1.7B vs liquidation $526.5M → recovery value = MAX = $1.7B (used: going concern, $1.7B). Claims = current face value + 3 months accrued interest.
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $1.7B | |||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($69.8M) | |||||
| First-Lien Term Loan | 1 | $407.4M | $407.4M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Senior Notes 5.90% | 3 | $507.4M | $507.4M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Total claims | $914.8M | $914.8M | $0.0M | |||
| Equity (residual) | $759.5M | In the money | ||||