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Brandywine Realty Trust · BDN

PUBLIC DATA CASEHYPOTHETICAL INVESTMENT TERMSHOLD

How one assumption propagates: statements → cash flow → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns

ANALYST PROJECTION

Stage	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
① Revenue growth (avg) → revenue (period 5)	1.0% → $523M	-1.4% → $463M	-3.8% → $409M
② EBITDA margin (period 1 → 5) → trough EBITDA	53.0% → 54.0% → $256M	50.0% → 49.5% → $220M	46.0% → 44.0% → $172M
③ Cumulative FCF (5 periods)	($436M)	($320M)	($319M)
④ Rate shock → period-1 cash interest	+0bp → $180M	+150bp → $187M	+300bp → $195M
⑤ Peak net leverage · min EBITDA/interest	10.0x · 1.34x	12.0x · 1.18x	15.8x · 0.90x
⑥ Covenants: first breach	LTM Jun-27E	LTM Jun-27E	LTM Jun-27E
⑦ Refinancing tests (pass / fail)	7 / 0	0 / 7	0 / 7
⑧ Payment default	none	LTM Jun-28E	LTM Jun-28E
⑨ Recovery value → target-tranche recovery	$4.0B (liquidation) → 100%	$3.3B (liquidation) → 100%	$2.7B (liquidation) → 100%
⑩ IRR · MOIC	9.6% · 1.29x	8.7% · 1.26x	9.9% · 1.29x

Scenario probabilities: Base Case 50% · Downside 35% · Severe Downside 15% (analyst assumption). Edit any assumption in the lab below to watch every stage move.

Scenario assumptions

	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
Revenue growth (period 1 / period 5)	-3.0% / 2.0%	-6.0% / 1.0%	-10.0% / 1.0%
EBITDA margin (period 1 / period 5)	53.0% / 54.0%	50.0% / 49.5%	46.0% / 44.0%
Capex % revenue	22.0%	18.0%	13.0%
Other cash items % revenue (+ outflow)	11.0%	5.0%	0.0%
Net asset sales (period 1, $M)	$200M	$150M	$100M
Floating-rate shock	+0 bp	+150 bp	+300 bp
Refinancing rate	8.0%	10.0%	12.0%
Market access: max net leverage / min coverage	11.0x / 1.20x	9.5x / 1.50x	9.0x / 1.75x
Exit multiple / distressed multiple	12.5x / 10.0x	11.0x / 9.0x	9.5x / 8.0x
Exit price cap (non-default)	100	95	85
Asset value decline / liquidation recovery	0% / 85%	15% / 85%	30% / 85%

EBITDA ($M)

Free cash flow ($M)

Net debt / EBITDA

Scenario engine — change assumptions and watch them propagate

Start from:Edits flow through statements → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns.

Assumptions (edit)

	LTM Jun-27E	LTM Jun-28E	LTM Jun-29E	LTM Jun-30E	LTM Jun-31E
Revenue growth	%	%	%	%	%
EBITDA margin	%	%	%	%	%
Asset sales ($M)

Capex % rev%NWC % Δrev%Other cash items % rev%Floating-rate shock%Refinancing rate%Max refi net lev (x)Min refi coverage (x)Exit multiple (x)Exit price cap (%)Distressed multiple (x)Asset value decline%Liquidation recovery%

Result — Hypothetical Senior Secured Term Loan (S+525, 1% floor) @ 98

Default?

Yes — LTM Jun-28E

Covenant breaches

Recovery

100%

IRR

8.7%

MOIC

1.26x

Lines: Base EBITDA (blue) vs your custom case (orange), $M.

$M	LTM Jun-27E	LTM Jun-28E	LTM Jun-29E	LTM Jun-30E	LTM Jun-31E
Revenue	$468M	$454M	$454M	$459M	$463M
EBITDA	$234M	$220M	$220M	$225M	$229M
Cash interest	$187M	$186M	$183M	$182M	$182M
FCF	($61M)	($70M)	($67M)	($63M)	($59M)
Cash	$123M	$0M	($71M)	($138M)	($201M)
Total debt	$2.6B	$2.6B	$2.6B	$2.6B	$2.6B
Net lev.	10.7x	11.7x	12.0x	12.0x	12.0x
EBITDA/int.	1.2x	1.2x	1.2x	1.2x	1.3x