Brandywine Realty Trust · BDN
PUBLIC DATA CASEHYPOTHETICAL INVESTMENT TERMSHOLDRecovery waterfall by scenario
ANALYST PROJECTIONRecovery value = MAX(going-concern value, liquidation value) + cash, less administrative costs, then distributed by seniority (strict absolute priority; equal ranks pari passu). Going concern = distressed EV/EBITDA multiple × EBITDA at the valuation event; liquidation = asset base × (1 − decline) × liquidation recovery. Valuation event = the payment-default period, or — if no default is modelled — a hypothetical default at the trough-EBITDA period (so protection is always measured). Specific liens are paid from their own collateral pool; any deficiency joins general creditors. LTM NOI ÷ 7.5% analyst cap rate + construction-in-progress + land held for development + unconsolidated JV book value (6/30/2026). Property values are NOT disclosed in the filings.
Base Case — LTM Jun-27E (hypothetical default at trough EBITDA; no default modelled)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | From own collateral | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $4.0B | ||||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($159.6M) | ||||||
| Hypothetical Senior Secured Term Loan (S+525, 1% floor) · pool 30% | 1 | $405.1M | $405.1M | $405.1M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Avira Secured Term Loan (swapped to 5.81%) · pool 3% | 1 | $91.3M | $91.3M | $91.3M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| 3151 Market C-PACE Loan · pool 2% | 1 | $58.4M | $58.4M | $58.4M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| 3.95% Guaranteed Notes due Nov-2027 | 2 | $454.4M | — | $454.4M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| 8.30% Guaranteed Notes due Mar-2028 | 2 | $357.3M | — | $357.3M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| 8.875% Guaranteed Notes due Apr-2029 | 2 | $562.2M | — | $562.2M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| 4.55% Guaranteed Notes due Oct-2029 | 2 | $354.0M | — | $354.0M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| 6.125% Guaranteed Notes due Jan-2031 | 2 | $304.6M | — | $304.6M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Junior subordinated trust-preferred indentures | 3 | $79.7M | — | $79.7M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Total claims | $2.7B | $2.7B | $0.0M | ||||
| Equity (residual) | $1.2B | In the money | |||||
Downside — LTM Jun-28E (modelled payment default)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | From own collateral | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $3.3B | ||||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($130.6M) | ||||||
| Hypothetical Senior Secured Term Loan (S+525, 1% floor) · pool 30% | 1 | $402.3M | $402.3M | $402.3M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Avira Secured Term Loan (swapped to 5.81%) · pool 3% | 1 | $91.3M | $91.3M | $91.3M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| 3151 Market C-PACE Loan · pool 2% | 1 | $58.4M | $58.4M | $58.4M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| 3.95% Guaranteed Notes due Nov-2027 | 2 | $405.4M | — | $405.4M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| 8.30% Guaranteed Notes due Mar-2028 | 2 | $357.3M | — | $357.3M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| 8.875% Guaranteed Notes due Apr-2029 | 2 | $562.2M | — | $562.2M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| 4.55% Guaranteed Notes due Oct-2029 | 2 | $354.0M | — | $354.0M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| 6.125% Guaranteed Notes due Jan-2031 | 2 | $304.6M | — | $304.6M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Junior subordinated trust-preferred indentures | 3 | $79.9M | — | $79.9M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Total claims | $2.6B | $2.6B | $0.0M | ||||
| Equity (residual) | $518.1M | In the money | |||||
Severe Downside — LTM Jun-28E (modelled payment default)
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | From own collateral | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $2.7B | ||||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($107.5M) | ||||||
| Hypothetical Senior Secured Term Loan (S+525, 1% floor) · pool 30% | 1 | $403.8M | $403.8M | $403.8M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Avira Secured Term Loan (swapped to 5.81%) · pool 3% | 1 | $91.3M | $85.2M | $85.2M | 93.3% | $6.2M | 6.7% |
| 3151 Market C-PACE Loan · pool 2% | 1 | $58.4M | $54.2M | $54.2M | 92.8% | $4.2M | 7.2% |
| 3.95% Guaranteed Notes due Nov-2027 | 2 | $439.2M | — | $439.2M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| 8.30% Guaranteed Notes due Mar-2028 | 2 | $357.3M | — | $357.3M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| 8.875% Guaranteed Notes due Apr-2029 | 2 | $562.2M | — | $562.2M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| 4.55% Guaranteed Notes due Oct-2029 | 2 | $354.0M | — | $354.0M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| 6.125% Guaranteed Notes due Jan-2031 | 2 | $304.6M | — | $304.6M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Junior subordinated trust-preferred indentures | 3 | $80.2M | — | $20.1M | 25.1% | $60.1M | 74.9% |
| Total claims | $2.7B | $2.6B | $70.5M | ||||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | |||||
Collateral coverage stress — when does recovery fall below 100%?
ANALYST PROJECTIONWhat the 30% pool means: an analyst assumption that the secured loan is paid from 30% of the recovery value of the whole issuer (waterfall: pool share × net distributable value), not a verified list of pledged properties. Stress basis: recovery = MIN(100%, pool share × asset value × (1 − realization cost) × (1 − 4% admin costs) ÷ claim). It is an asset-based floor (no going-concern value, no cash, no deficiency recovery); claim = $400M principal at close. Asset value $4.5B = LTM NOI $302M ÷ 7.5% cap rate + $498M of book-value land, CIP and JV investments; realization factor 85% (Severe scenario).
Recovery % — cap rate vs NOI change
| Cap rate ↓ / NOI change → | 0% | -10% | -20% | -30% | -40% | -50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 7.5% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 9.0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 10.5% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 12.0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 14.0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 96% |
Recovery % — pledged share vs realization factor (1 − sale/enforcement cost)
| Pool share ↓ / Realization → | 100% | 85% | 70% | 55% | 40% | 25% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | 100% | 92% | 76% | 60% | 43% | 27% |
| 20% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 87% | 54% |
| 30% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 81% |
| 40% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 60% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Recovery % — loan balance vs asset-value decline
| Claim × ↓ / Asset decline → | 0% | 20% | 40% | 60% | 70% | 80% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0x | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 83% | 55% |
| 1.5x | 100% | 100% | 100% | 74% | 55% | 37% |
| 2.0x | 100% | 100% | 83% | 55% | 41% | 28% |
| 3.0x | 92% | 74% | 55% | 37% | 28% | 18% |
Recovery lab — change valuation assumptions and watch the waterfall re-allocate
Going-concern $1.4B vs liquidation $2.7B → recovery value = MAX = $2.7B (used: liquidation, $2.7B). Claims = current face value + 3 months accrued interest.
| Claim (by seniority) | Rank | Claim | From own collateral | Recovery | Recovery % | Loss | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery value | $2.7B | ||||||
| Less: administrative / DIP costs | ($107.5M) | ||||||
| Hypothetical Senior Secured Term Loan (S+525, 1% floor) · pool 30% | 1 | $409.1M | $409.1M | $409.1M | 100.0% | $0.0M | 0.0% |
| Avira Secured Term Loan (swapped to 5.81%) · pool 3% | 1 | $91.3M | $85.2M | $85.2M | 93.3% | $6.2M | 6.7% |
| 3151 Market C-PACE Loan · pool 2% | 1 | $58.4M | $54.2M | $54.2M | 92.8% | $4.2M | 7.2% |
| 3.95% Guaranteed Notes due Nov-2027 | 2 | $454.4M | — | $454.3M | 100.0% | $0.1M | 0.0% |
| 8.30% Guaranteed Notes due Mar-2028 | 2 | $357.3M | — | $357.2M | 100.0% | $0.1M | 0.0% |
| 8.875% Guaranteed Notes due Apr-2029 | 2 | $562.2M | — | $562.1M | 100.0% | $0.1M | 0.0% |
| 4.55% Guaranteed Notes due Oct-2029 | 2 | $354.0M | — | $353.9M | 100.0% | $0.1M | 0.0% |
| 6.125% Guaranteed Notes due Jan-2031 | 2 | $304.6M | — | $304.5M | 100.0% | $0.1M | 0.0% |
| Junior subordinated trust-preferred indentures | 3 | $79.7M | — | $0.0M | 0.0% | $79.7M | 100.0% |
| Total claims | $2.7B | $2.6B | $90.5M | ||||
| Equity (residual) | $0.0M | Wiped out | |||||