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Cascade Fitness · CSFT

DEMO DATAUNDERWRITING ASSUMPTIONHOLD

How one assumption propagates: statements → cash flow → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns

ANALYST PROJECTION

Stage	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
① Revenue growth (avg) → revenue (period 5)	6.0% → $1.2B	-0.6% → $871M	-6.0% → $647M
② EBITDA margin (period 1 → 5) → trough EBITDA	22.0% → 22.8% → $210M	19.5% → 20.0% → $150M	16.0% → 17.0% → $90M
③ Cumulative FCF (5 periods)	$313M	$36M	($239M)
④ Rate shock → period-1 cash interest	+0bp → $99M	+150bp → $109M	+300bp → $120M
⑤ Peak net leverage · min EBITDA/interest	4.9x · 2.13x	7.0x · 1.41x	12.9x · 0.77x
⑥ Covenants: first breach	none	FY2027E	FY2026E
⑦ Refinancing tests (pass / fail)	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1
⑧ Payment default	none	FY2030E	FY2027E
⑨ Recovery value → target-tranche recovery	$1.3B (going concern) → 100%	$958M (going concern) → 72%	$495M (going concern) → 0%
⑩ IRR · MOIC	7.3% · 1.22x	2.7% · 1.14x	-66.0% · 0.17x

Scenario probabilities: Base Case 55% · Downside 30% · Severe Downside 15% (analyst assumption). Edit any assumption in the lab below to watch every stage move.

Scenario assumptions

	Base Case	Downside	Severe Downside
Revenue growth (period 1 / period 5)	6.0% / 6.0%	-6.6% / 2.0%	-19.8% / 2.0%
EBITDA margin (period 1 / period 5)	22.0% / 22.8%	19.5% / 20.0%	16.0% / 17.0%
Capex % revenue	6.0%	5.7%	4.8%
Other cash items % revenue (+ outflow)	0.0%	0.2%	0.6%
Net asset sales (period 1, $M)	$0M	$0M	$0M
Floating-rate shock	+0 bp	+150 bp	+300 bp
Refinancing rate	9.5%	12.0%	14.5%
Market access: max net leverage / min coverage	8.5x / 1.20x	5.5x / 1.80x	5.0x / 2.00x
Exit multiple / distressed multiple	10.0x / 5.5x	8.5x / 5.5x	7.0x / 5.5x
Exit price cap (non-default)	100	90	70
Asset value decline / liquidation recovery	0% / 20%	15% / 20%	35% / 20%

EBITDA ($M)

Free cash flow ($M)

Net debt / EBITDA

Scenario engine — change assumptions and watch them propagate

Start from:Edits flow through statements → debt → metrics → covenants → refinancing → default → recovery → returns.

Assumptions (edit)

	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue growth	%	%	%	%	%
EBITDA margin	%	%	%	%	%
Asset sales ($M)

Capex % rev%NWC % Δrev%Other cash items % rev%Floating-rate shock%Refinancing rate%Max refi net lev (x)Min refi coverage (x)Exit multiple (x)Exit price cap (%)Distressed multiple (x)Asset value decline%Liquidation recovery%

Result — Senior Notes 9.00% @ 104

Default?

Yes — FY2030E

Covenant breaches

Recovery

72%

IRR

2.7%

MOIC

1.14x

Lines: Base EBITDA (blue) vs your custom case (orange), $M.

$M	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E	FY2030E
Revenue	$841M	$813M	$837M	$854M	$871M
EBITDA	$164M	$150M	$159M	$167M	$174M
Cash interest	$109M	$107M	$104M	$104M	$103M
FCF	$6M	($4M)	$5M	$11M	$17M
Cash	$89M	$79M	$77M	$81M	$0M
Total debt	$1.1B	$1.1B	$1.1B	$1.1B	$1.0B
Net lev.	6.4x	7.0x	6.6x	6.3x	5.9x
EBITDA/int.	1.5x	1.4x	1.5x	1.6x	1.7x